debtoverhang   162

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How Trump Could Cause the Economic Meltdown - YouTube
Trump not addressing working poor, tech unemployment all unemployment and poor pay, growth of service sector jobs not caused by globalisation only. [...] Skidelsky promised leisure time is not in sight!!! bc tech put in place for profitmaximisation. more productivity, but worker retrained using robot paid same as before. not better. // Institutionalize Redistribution via Co-Ops (ie profit sharing, not CEO pay excess, no Wall Street shareholder dividends, but workers dividends (13th monthly payment), // Repeal ACA/Obamacare, is tax cut for 200k (250k as couple) households (10-1%)! canceling their progressive taxes on healthcare, to subsidize the poor and those without. what Obamacare enabled, insuring millions of uninsured, bc could not afford it. // Capitalism does not provide security to working class. bc taken over by neolib, crony, two rules, corruption, 1% fouvourism // do not reform, institutionalise from bottom and top redistribution ie co-op, progressive taxation (w investment tax free brackets), no tax evasion/avoidance harsher sentences, universal basic income w edu reform (Richard David Precht), ...
DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  Co-Op  wealth  redistribution  Precariat  working  poor  Service  Sector  USA  income  growth  wage  CEO  pay  WallStreet  shareholder  stakeholder  GFC  squeezed  middle  class  poverty  trap  Consumer  Debt  household  debtoverhang  discretionary  spending  disposable  AI  Robotics  Skidelsky  technological  Productivity  leisure  time  part-time  Obamacare  ACA  neoliberal  neoliberalism  crony  Capitalism  Exploitation 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
Debt: Why more people are pressing the bankruptcy button - BBC News
More going bust as personal borrowing surges - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38768705 - The number of people declared insolvent owing to unmanageable debts was 13% higher in 2016 compared with the previous year,
consumer  debt  debtoverhang  household  discretionary  spending  UK  disposable  income  credit  binge  card  materialism  Consumerism  consumerist  Status  Anxiety  mental  health  rat  race 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
UK credit binge approaching levels not seen since 2008 crash | Business | The Guardian
//&! http://bit.ly/2j5VMET - Shoppers are still pulling out the plastic, but borrowing may become less choice and more necessity as budgets are squeezed //&! http://bit.ly/2hW63rg - BOE unable to put "irrational behavior" into models, ie credit binge. //&! wrong for BOE to compare levels to GDP! http://bit.ly/2iR2fGY - AUSTERITY UK KEPT AFLOAT BY CONSUMER CREDIT BINGE! - 2015 economy growth was 80% consumer! &! Carney Warning Jan 2017 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38644963
credit  card  car  loan  consumer  debt  household  mortgage  Property  bubble  UK  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  wage  growth  inflation  BOE  payday  auto  recovery  GFC  economic  history  Consumerism  materialism  Brexit  irrational  behavior  debtoverhang  austerity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE 
january 2017 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
More Evidence Supporting the House of Debt | House of Debt
Many have argued that we overstate the importance of housing and household debt in explaining the Great Recession and weak recovery. They point to the banking crisis, policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important. The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant for thinking about economic weakness today. In our view, the explanation we provide is the most consistent with the striking difference in consumption across states. // From Comments: Without real median income rising you can’t grow in an economy based on debt expansion
secular  stagnation  consumer  debt  mortgage  market  household  debt  USA  UK  recovery  GFC  credit  card  debt  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  book  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumerist  consumerism  zombie  consumer  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  negative  equity  job  creation  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  job-creation  squeezed  middle  class  Elizabeth  Warren  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  American  Dream  post-racial  America  Joseph  Stiglitz  Thomas  Piketty  Paul  Krugman  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  income  growth  income  inequality  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  austerity  oligarchy  plutocracy  fiscal  stimulus  budget  deficit  corporate  welfare  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  welfare  state  social  safety  net  western  world  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
BBC Documentary - The Money Trap - How Banks Control the World Through Debt - YouTube
most profitable credit card debt customers are those making just the minimum payment. ... a credit card being a statement of status! retaining customers by upgrading them regularly w higher limits, new colors, new perks (they will never use). // unsecured lending - DEFINITION of 'Unsecured Loan' A loan that is issued and supported only by the borrower's creditworthiness, rather than by a type of collateral. An unsecured loan is one that is obtained without the use of property as collateral for the loan. // revolving debt // the higher your credit limit, the more you are likely to spend. // half of his income to just serve credit card fees and interest charges (no payments towards paying down) debt ... // banks lend irresponsibly bc they know they can get away with it, or somebody else will do it! because there is not regulation. no bank oversight. //&! The Truth about Payday Loans :Young, British and Broke - youtu.be/-yWxTvffbuE //&! Gambling/Betting Shops on Highstreet.
retail  banking  investment  banking  CDO  CDS  subprime  credit  card  debt  credit  card  financial  literacy  household  debt  mortgage  market  Payday  Loans  exploitation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Bubble  property  ethics  moral  beliefs  revolving  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  private  debt  status  symbol  instant  gratification  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  zombie  consumer  consumerist  consumerism  Protection  overdraft  materialism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  NPL  NINJA  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  incentive  creditrating  credit  creditrisk  credit  score  self-regulation  Bank  Oversight  financial  instruments  derivatives 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
This Is What Janet Yellen Thinks Is The "Worst-Case Scenario" For The U.S. | Zero Hedge
So, unfortunately, a Japan-style deflation remains a relevant worst-case scenario for us going forward. //&! What if Fed (Yellen) doesn't support any more the equity market? Just financial stability, banks (bail-in). No more blowing up credit bubble further. - http://bit.ly/1Oqb822
Janet  Yellen  Japan  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  Abenomics  equity  bubble  bail-in  speculative  bubbles  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The roof is being fixed but beware the house crashing beneath it | Business | The Guardian
Consumer spending is driving economic growth but household debt and the house price-income ratio is at a record high. Be afraid [...] It is worth recalling that when Osborne became chancellor five and a half years ago that he had two big objectives. The first was to repair the hole in the public finances, which is still very much a work in progress. The other was to shift the centre of gravity of the economy back towards making things for export. This remains a pipedream. [...] Despite the welcome pickup in business investment, the main driver of growth has been consumer spending, which has been boosted by low interest rates, the fall in inflation caused by lower oil prices, and a modest acceleration in earnings. [...] “not the ideal shape for the recovery” and it can say that again. The current recovery looks like all the previous recoveries. [...] “Fast-rising household debt is needed to maintain a reasonable rate of growth in consumers’ spending and GDP in a world of austerity ...
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december 2015 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
Borrowing up amid interest rates speculation - BBC News
Mortgage brokers said that the relatively low mortgage rates on offer could be a response to a mismatch of supply and demand. "The mortgage market remains over supplied with lenders having more money to lend than there are people looking for home loans. This means criteria will have to loosen and rates will have to remain low to ensure lenders hit their volume targets," said Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients. "For many, the main issue is not so much finding a cheap mortgage rate but being able to prove affordability to satisfy the lender and meet [the regulator's] tighter criteria."
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
New US subprime boom - but this time it is for cars - BBC News
- zero hedge had chart w student loan bubble standing at 1trn, and some, as of about mid 2015, with car loans about to reach 1trn, and credit card debt. just google 'zero hedge car loan' - Blackstone says car loans are now in "untested" territory - bit.ly/1TO6Gxb - "The takeaway here is simple: under pressure to keep the US auto sales miracle alive and feed Wall Street's securitization machine (which is itself driven by demand from yield-starved investors) along the way, lenders are lowering their underwriting standards and extending loans to underqualified borrowers. [...] This cannot and will not end well." // July - With the US consumer hunkering down in 2015 and barely spending more than in the comparble period last year, the only silver lining had been auto sales driven almost entirely by access to cheap credit; - bit.ly/1QBIWc5
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september 2015 by asterisk2a

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