dc:creator=bushstephen   29

Nick Timothy is wrong – he is the one who killed Brexit, not Theresa May
I know that looking for self-awareness from Nick Timothy is like looking for moral philosophy from a cow, but hang about: “the week that Brexit was finally killed” was the week of 18 May 2017: when Theresa May launched her manifesto, a politically toxic document that insulted the young, offended the elderly and alienated the middle-aged. The most damaging policy of all was that concerning social care: one authored by Nick Timothy, the object of concern to his co-chief, Fiona Hill, and the then health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

The damage that did to Theresa May’s popularity and to the Conservative campaign was decisive in the election result – which returned a Parliament which will only be able to agree a Norway-type Brexit. That is the clear and inescapable truth of every serious post-mortem of what happened to the Conservative Party in the final weeks of the campaign.

The reason why May can't make this argument personally is that it means returning to the scene of the crime: telling Conservative MPs that not only did her maladroit conduct of the 2017 campaign cost them their majority and the careers of their colleagues and friends, but that it locks them into a Brexit trajectory in which the only available exits are ones that most Conservative MPs fear will be politically disastrous. But if Nick Timothy wants to identify the week that Brexit was “killed”, he should look to the past: and if he wants to know the culprit, he should look in the mirror.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  politics  DUP  Ireland  NorthernIreland  borders  Norway  MayTheresa  ToryParty  ge2017  socialCare  manifesto  TimothyNick  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
december 2018 by petej
Can the government avoid crashing out of the European Union without a deal?
Ultimately the only way that the government can avoid a massive row over the final relationship with the European Union in this parliament, which cannot agree on the final relationship, is to simply avoid discussing the final relationship in any detail this side of the 2022 election by having a cursory bit of language in the Withdrawal Agreement of the “there will be a trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union” variety and for transition to roll over until such a time as one of the major political parties wins a big enough parliamentary majority to overcome its own internal divisions or the conditions of coalition partners to decisively resolve the matter of the UK-EU relationship.
UK  EU  Brexit  negotiations  noDeal  HuntJeremy  generalElection  referendum  hardBrexit  transition  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
august 2018 by petej
I used to think that the Tory problem was housing. But now I'm not so sure
I think the bigger problem facing the Conservatives as a result of the housing market, is one of distribution: growing prices means that liberal and ideologically left-wing middle class voters, who might previously have remained in Manchester, London or Liverpool, are moving out to previously blue or marginal suburbs – and taking their voting habits with them (see, for instance, the Wirral constituencies, both Bury seats, and Croydon Central).
UK  politics  housing  property  renting  location  ToryParty  voting  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
march 2018 by petej
Time is running out for Remainer MPs who want to prevent a hard Brexit
The truth is that – just as with the Article 50 vote last year – Corbyn's decision probably changed a handful of votes either way. Left to their own devices, Diane Abbott and Barry Gardiner, plus perhaps another 20 or so backbenchers, would have voted for the amendment.

But as it stands, a far bigger rebellion would have gone the other way. Whether through conviction that Britain does need to get its immigration under control (Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock), the belief that the referendum was a de facto one on border control so, like it or not, that must happen (Jonathan Reynolds, Emma Reynolds) or a belief that Labour must toughen its policy on immigration to win an election (Yvette Cooper, Tom Watson), there is, at present, a large majority within the PLP for a drastic breach with the European Union.
UK  EU  Brexit  LabourParty  UmunnaChuka  Remain  singleMarket  customsUnion  hardBrexit  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
june 2017 by petej

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