counterfactual   136

« earlier    

AI Needs More Why
An article on Judea Pearl's Book of WHY.
Quite an accessible introduction.
judeapearl  pearl  why  ai  explanation  correlation  introspection  counterfactual  retrospection  introduction 
9 weeks ago by drmeme
[1812.03253] Counterfactuals uncover the modular structure of deep generative models
Deep generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) are important tools to capture and investigate the properties of complex empirical data. However, the complexity of their inner elements makes their functioning challenging to assess and modify. In this respect, these architectures behave as black box models. In order to better understand the function of such networks, we analyze their modularity based on the counterfactual manipulation of their internal variables. Experiments with face images support that modularity between groups of channels is achieved to some degree within convolutional layers of vanilla VAE and GAN generators. This helps understand the functional organization of these systems and allows designing meaningful transformations of the generated images without further training.
neural-net  gan  vae  analysis  interpretation  counterfactual 
december 2018 by arsyed
[1811.00164] Deep Counterfactual Regret Minimization
Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is the leading algorithm for solving large imperfect-information games. It iteratively traverses the game tree in order to converge to a Nash equilibrium. In order to deal with extremely large games, CFR typically uses domain-specific heuristics to simplify the target game in a process known as abstraction. This simplified game is solved with tabular CFR, and its solution is mapped back to the full game. This paper introduces Deep Counterfactual Regret Minimization (Deep CFR), a form of CFR that obviates the need for abstraction by instead using deep neural networks to approximate the behavior of CFR in the full game. We show that Deep CFR is principled and achieves strong performance in large poker games. This is the first non-tabular variant of CFR to be successful in large games.
game-theory  deep-learning  counterfactual  regret-minimiation  cfr  algorithms 
december 2018 by arsyed
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda: Counterfactually-Guided Policy Search | OpenReview
Abstract: Learning policies on data synthesized by models can in principle quench the thirst of reinforcement learning algorithms for large amounts of real experience, which is often costly to acquire. However, simulating plausible experience de novo is a hard problem for many complex environments, often resulting in biases for model-based policy evaluation and search. Instead of de novo synthesis of data, here we assume logged, real experience and model alternative outcomes of this experience under counterfactual actions, i.e. actions that were not actually taken. Based on this, we propose the Counterfactually-Guided Policy Search (CF-GPS) algorithm for learning policies in POMDPs from off-policy experience. It leverages structural causal models for counterfactual evaluation of arbitrary policies on individual off-policy episodes. CF-GPS can improve on vanilla model-based RL algorithms by making use of available logged data to de-bias model predictions. In contrast to off-policy algorithms based on Importance Sampling which re-weight data, CF-GPS leverages a model to explicitly consider alternative outcomes, allowing the algorithm to make better use of experience data. We find empirically that these advantages translate into improved policy evaluation and search results on a non-trivial grid-world task. Finally, we show that CF-GPS generalizes the previously proposed Guided Policy Search and that reparameterization-based algorithms such Stochastic Value Gradient can be interpreted as counterfactual methods.
reinforcement-learning  counterfactual  causal  iclr-2019 
november 2018 by arsyed
Eddie Murphy and the Dangers of Counterfactual Causal Thinking About Detecting Racial Discrimination by Issa Kohler-Hausmann :: SSRN
"The model of discrimination animating some of the most common approaches to detecting discrimination in both law and social science—the counterfactual causal model—is wrong. In that model, racial discrimination is detected by measuring the “treatment effect of race,” where the treatment is conceptualized as manipulating the raced status of otherwise identical units (e.g., a person, a neighborhood, a school). Most objections to talking about race as a cause in the counterfactual model have been raised in terms of manipulability. If we cannot manipulate a person’s race at the moment of a police stop, traffic encounter, or prosecutorial charging decision, then it is impossible to detect if the person’s race was the sole cause of an unfavorable outcome. But this debate has proceeded on the wrong terms. The counterfactual causal model of discrimination is not wrong because we can’t work around the practical limits of manipulation, as evidenced by both Eddie Murphy’s comic genius in the SNL skit “White Like Me” and the entire genre of audit and correspondence studies. It is wrong because to fit the rigor of the counterfactual model of a clearly defined treatment on otherwise identical units, we must reduce race to only the signs of the category, meaning we must think race is skin color, or phenotype, or other ways we identify group status. And that is a concept mistake if one subscribes to a constructivist, as opposed to biological or genetic, conception of race. I argue that the counterfactual causal model of discrimination is based on a flawed theory of (1) what the category of race references and how it produces effects in the world and (2) what is meant when we say it is wrong to make decisions of import because of race. We cannot detect actions as discriminatory by identifying a relation of counterfactual causality; we can only do so by reasoning about its distinctive wrongfulness by referencing what constitutes the very categories that are the objects of concern."
discrimination  race  law  reasoning  causality  counterfactual 
october 2018 by arsyed
The seven tools of causal inference with reflections on machine learning
The usual great synopsis by Adrian Colyer at A Morning Paper, of Judea Pearl's paper, on the differences between machine learning models and structural causal models.

See the original paper at
causality  inference  interventions  counterfactual  structuralcausalmodels 
september 2018 by drmeme
Toward Predicting the Outcome of an A/B Experiment for Search Relevance
A standard approach to estimating online click-based metrics
of a ranking function is to run it in a controlled experiment
on live users. While reliable and popular in practice,
configuring and running an online experiment is cumbersome
and time-intensive. In this work, inspired by recent
successes of offline evaluation techniques for recommender
systems, we study an alternative that uses historical search
log to reliably predict online click-based metrics of a new
ranking function, without actually running it on live users.
To tackle novel challenges encountered in Web search,
variations of the basic techniques are proposed. The first
is to take advantage of diversified behavior of a search engine
over a long period of time to simulate randomized data
collection, so that our approach can be used at very low cost.
The second is to replace exact matching (of recommended
items in previous work) by fuzzy matching (of search result
pages) to increase data efficiency, via a better trade-off
of bias and variance. Extensive experimental results based
on large-scale real search data from a major commercial
search engine in the US market demonstrate our approach
is promising and has potential for wide use in Web search.
IR  ab-testing  counterfactual  papers 
august 2018 by foodbaby

« earlier    

related tags

2016-election  2016  2018  99u  :/  a-b-testing  ab-testing  abortion-contraception-embryo  accountability  acm  acmtariat  adam-kalai  admissions  aeon  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  agent  agriculture  ai-control  ai  albion  alesina  algorithms  allodium  alt-inst  alternate-history  alternative_history  altruism  american  americas  analogy  analysis  andrew_gelman  anglo  anglosphere  animals  announcement  anthropology  antidemos  aphorism  applications  archaeology  aristos  arms  article  asia  assimilation  assortative-mating  assymetry  attaq  authoritarianism  automation  autosuggestion  axioms  backup  bayesian  behavior  behavioral-gen  belief_updating  benedictevans  bias-variance  biases  big-peeps  biodet  biophysical-econ  black  bounded-cognition  branches  brands  brexit  britain  broad-econ  business  c:**  california  capitalism  cartography  causal  causality  causation  cfr  change  chart  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civil-war  civilrights  cjones-like  class-warfare  class  classic  clever-rats  climate-change  clinton  cliometrics  clown-world  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cognition  cogsci  cohesion  cold-war  colonialism  commentary  communism  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  concept  conceptual-vocab  conceptual_blending  conquest-empire  continents  contracts  contrarianism  control  convexity-curvature  coordination  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  cracker-econ  creativity  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  crooked  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  culture  current-events  curvature  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dag  darwinian  data  daydream  death  debate  debugging  decentralized  decision-theory  deep-learning  definite-planning  definiteness  delivery  democracy  demographics  dental  descriptive  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  dieselpunk  dignity  disaggregation  discovery  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  dominant-minority  dropbox  drugs  duty  early-modern  easterly  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden-heaven  education  effect-size  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  elite  embodied  empathy  empirical  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  entanglement  entrepreneurialism  environment  environmental-effects  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  erasure  ernest-gellner  error  essay  ethics  eu  europe  evaluation  evidence-based  evolution  exit-voice  expert-experience  expert  explanation  exposition  externalities  facebook  facts  fairness  faith  fat  fatml  fda  fermi  fertility  feudal  fiction  flexibility  flux-stasis  foreign-policy  formal-logic  free-riding  frontier  funny  gallic  game-theory  gan  garett-jones  gaussian-processes  gedanken  gelman  gender-diff  gender  general-survey  generalization  geopolitics  germanic  getunblocked  giants  gibbon  gnon  gnosis-logos  goldrush  government  great-powers  group-level  growth-econ  growth  gt-101  hackingthecreativebrain  hanson  hari-seldon  harvard  health  healthcare  history  hive-mind  hmm  homo-hetero  honor  housing  hsu  human-capital  humility  hypocrisy  hypothesis-testing  hypothetical  iclr-2019  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  immigration  impact  incentives  india  industrial-revolution  inequality  inference  info-dynamics  infrastructure  innovation  insight  inspiration  institutions  integrity  interactive-learning  interference  interpretability  interpretation  intervention  interventions  intricacy  introduction  introspection  invention  inversion  ir  iron-age  islam  japan  java  journos-pundits  judaism  judea_pearl  judeapearl  judgement  justice  kieran-healy  knowledge  kumbaya-kult  labor  language-model  language  latent-variables  latin-america  latin  law  leadership  learning  left-wing  legacy  lethem  letters  leviathan  life-history  life  linguistics  links  list  local-global  locality  logic  lol  longitudinal  machine-learning  machinelearning  macro  madisonian  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  map-territory  map  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  markets  maths  meaningness  measurement  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memory  meritocracy  meta:prediction  meta:war  metabuch  methodology  micro  microfoundations  migrant-crisis  migration  military  minimization  minority  ml  model-adaptation  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  mood-affiliation  mostly-modern  multi  mutatismutandis  myth  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  nations  nativeamerica  natural-experiment  neural-net  new-religion  news  nibble  nicolegonochi  nietzsche  nl-and-so-can-you  nordic  north-weingast-like  northeast  novelty  nuclear  null-result  occam  offline  old-anglo  oppressed  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:data  org:econlib  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:theos  organizing  outcome-risk  papers  parable  parasites-microbiome  parenting  pareto  parser  parsimony  patho-altruism  patience  pdf  pearl  people  philip_tetlock  philosophy  physics  piracy  plots  poast  podemo  polarization  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  poor  populism  positivity  postmortem  pre-ww2  prediction  preprint  problemsolving  profile  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoe  psychology  public-goodish  public-health  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  quantum  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  rats  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  reasoning  red-queen  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression-to-mean  regret-minimiation  regret  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement-learning  religion  rent-seeking  replication  representation-learning  research  retrospection  revealed-preference  review  revolution  rhetoric  rhetsy  right-wing  ritual  robust  roots  rot  russia  schelling  science  science_fiction  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  selection  self-report  semantic  sex  sexuality  signaling  sinosphere  skeleton  slippery-slope  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-structure  social  socialmedia  society  sociology  soviet  spearhead  speculation  spock  spooky  spookyaction  spookyactionatadistance  spreading  ssc  stackex  standard  statesmen  stats  status  strategy  stripe  structuralcausalmodels  study  stylized-facts  success  suchi-saria  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  symbol  tactics  tech  technology  temperature  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-trenches  the-west  theory_of_mind  theos  thick-thin  thiel  thinking  time-preference  time  top-n  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  tradition  transportation  tree  trends  tribalism  trump  trust  truth  tumblr  twin-study  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  us-them  usa  vae  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  vegan  video  visualization  volo-avolo  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  wechat  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  what  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  why  wiki  wonkish  world-war  world  worlds  yarvin  yvain  zeitgeist  🌞  🎩  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark: