convexity-curvature   87

« earlier    

Complexity no Bar to AI -
Critics of AI risk suggest diminishing returns to computing (formalized asymptotically) means AI will be weak; this argument relies on a large number of questionable premises and ignoring additional resources, constant factors, and nonlinear returns to small intelligence advantages, and is highly unlikely. (computer science, transhumanism, AI, R)
created: 1 June 2014; modified: 01 Feb 2018; status: finished; confidence: likely; importance: 10
ratty  gwern  analysis  faq  ai  risk  speedometer  intelligence  futurism  cs  computation  complexity  tcs  linear-algebra  nonlinearity  convexity-curvature  average-case  adversarial  article  time-complexity  singularity  iteration-recursion  magnitude  multiplicative  lower-bounds  no-go  performance  hardware  humanity  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  iq  distribution  moments  complement-substitute  hanson  ems  enhancement  parable  detail-architecture  universalism-particularism  neuro  ai-control  environment  climate-change  threat-modeling  security  theory-practice  hacker  academia  realness  crypto  rigorous-crypto  usa  government 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Open Thread, 11/26/2017 – Gene Expression
A few days ago there was a Twitter thing about top five books that have influenced you. It’s hard for me to name five, but I put three books down for three different reasons:

- Principles of Population Genetics, because it gives you a model for how to analyze and understand evolutionary processes. There are other books out there besides Principles of Population Genetics. But if you buy this book you don’t need to buy another (at SMBE this year I confused Andy Clark with Mike Lynch for a second when introducing myself. #awkward)
- The Fall of Rome. A lot of historical writing can be tendentious. I’ve also noticed an unfortunate tendency of historians dropping into contemporary arguments and pretty much lying through omission or elision to support their political side (it usually goes “actually, I’m a specialist in this topic and my side is 100% correct because of obscure-stuff where I’m shading the facts”). The Fall of Rome illustrates the solidity that an archaeological and materialist take can give the field. This sort of materialism isn’t the final word, but it needs to be the start of the conversation.
- From Dawn to Decadence: 1500 to the Present: 500 Years of Western Cultural Life. To know things is important in and of itself. My own personal experience is that the returns to knowing things in a particular domain or area do not exhibit a linear return. Rather, it exhibits a logistic curve. Initially, it’s hard to make sense of anything from the facts, but at some point comprehension and insight increase rapidly, until you reach the plateau of diminishing marginal returns.

If you haven’t, I recommend you subscribe to Patrick Wyman’s Tides of History podcast. I pretty much wait now for every new episode.
gnxp  scitariat  open-things  links  commentary  books  recommendations  list  top-n  confluence  bio  genetics  population-genetics  history  iron-age  the-classics  mediterranean  gibbon  letters  academia  social-science  truth  westminster  meta:rhetoric  debate  politics  nonlinearity  convexity-curvature  knowledge  learning  cost-benefit  aphorism  metabuch  podcast  psychology  evopsych  replication  social-psych  ego-depletion  stereotypes 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Subgradients - S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe
If f is convex and x ∈ int dom f, then ∂f(x) is nonempty and bounded. To establish that ∂f(x) ≠ ∅, we apply the supporting hyperplane theorem to the convex set epi f at the boundary point (x, f(x)), ...
pdf  nibble  lecture-notes  acm  optimization  curvature  math.CA  estimate  linearity  differential  existence  proofs  exposition  atoms  math  marginal  convexity-curvature 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Stages of Diversification
This paper studies the evolution of sectoral concentration in relation to the level of per capita income. We show that various measures of sectoral concentration follow a U-shaped pattern across a wide variety of data sources: countries first diversify, in the sense that economic activity is spread more equally across sectors, but there exists, relatively late in the development process, a point at which they start specializing again. We discuss this finding in light of existing theories of trade and growth, which generally predict a monotonic relationship between income and diversification. (JEL F43, F15, O40)

seems unhealthy to me (complacency)
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  stylized-facts  correlation  curvature  wealth  wealth-of-nations  distribution  trade  heavy-industry  🎩  group-level  regional-scatter-plots  longitudinal  the-world-is-just-atoms  econ-metrics  econometrics  broad-econ  diversity  entropy-like  nonlinearity  convexity-curvature 
june 2017 by nhaliday
There Is No Such Thing as Decreasing Returns to Scale — Confessions of a Supply-Side Liberal
Besides pedagogical inertia—enforced to some extent by textbook publishers—I am not quite sure what motivates the devotion in so many economics curricula to U-shaped average cost curves. Let me make one guess: there is a desire to explain why firms are the size they are rather than larger or smaller. To my mind, such an explanation should proceed in one of three ways, appropriate to three different situations.
econotariat  economics  micro  plots  scale  marginal  industrial-org  business  econ-productivity  efficiency  cost-benefit  explanation  critique  clarity  intricacy  curvature  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  input-output 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Estimating the number of unseen variants in the human genome
To find all common variants (frequency at least 1%) the number of individuals that need to be sequenced is small (∼350) and does not differ much among the different populations; our data show that, subject to sequence accuracy, the 1000 Genomes Project is likely to find most of these common variants and a high proportion of the rarer ones (frequency between 0.1 and 1%). The data reveal a rule of diminishing returns: a small number of individuals (∼150) is sufficient to identify 80% of variants with a frequency of at least 0.1%, while a much larger number (> 3,000 individuals) is necessary to find all of those variants.

A map of human genome variation from population-scale sequencing:

Scientists using data from the 1000 Genomes Project, which sequenced one thousand individuals from 26 human populations, found that "a typical [individual] genome differs from the reference human genome at 4.1 million to 5.0 million sites … affecting 20 million bases of sequence."[11] Nearly all (>99.9%) of these sites are small differences, either single nucleotide polymorphisms or brief insertion-deletions in the genetic sequence, but structural variations account for a greater number of base-pairs than the SNPs and indels.[11]

Human genetic variation:

Singleton Variants Dominate the Genetic Architecture of Human Gene Expression:
study  sapiens  genetics  genomics  population-genetics  bioinformatics  data  prediction  cost-benefit  scale  scaling-up  org:nat  QTL  methodology  multi  pdf  curvature  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  measurement  magnitude  🌞  distribution  missing-heritability  pop-structure  genetic-load  mutation  wiki  reference  article  structure  bio  preprint  biodet  variance-components  nibble  chart 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Concentration and Growth | Dietrich Vollrath
Ultimately, and this is my impression, not some kind of established fact, concentration likely lowers innovative activity. Put it this way, the null hypothesis should probably be that concentration lowers innovation. An individual industry needs to provide evidence they are on the “right side of the curve” in the first AAH figure to believe concentration would be good for productivity growth in the long run.
econotariat  commentary  links  economics  growth-econ  trends  market-power  business  industrial-org  flexibility  innovation  malaise  stagnation  econ-productivity  madisonian  rent-seeking  competition  correlation  frontier  stylized-facts  chart  🎩  entrepreneurialism  rot  scale  curvature  corporation  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity 
may 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

2013  academia  accretion  accuracy  acm  acmtariat  additive-combo  adversarial  ai-control  ai  akrasia  algorithms  alignment  amt  analysis  anthropic  aphorism  approximation  arms  arrows  article  asia  atoms  audio  automata  automation  average-case  aversion  backup  bayesian  behavioral-gen  ben-recht  benchmarks  best-practices  better-explained  big-picture  binomial  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  bits  blowhards  boltzmann  books  boolean-analysis  britain  broad-econ  brunn-minkowski  business  calculation  calculator  caltech  career  cartoons  characterization  chart  cheatsheet  china  civilization  clarity  class  classification  clever-rats  climate-change  cliometrics  coarse-fine  cog-psych  commentary  communication  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  complexity  compressed-sensing  computation  computational-geometry  computer-vision  concentration-of-measure  concept  conceptual-vocab  conference  confluence  constraint-satisfaction  contracts  contrarianism  convergence  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  cost-benefit  counterexample  course  critique  crypto  cs  curiosity  curvature  data  debate  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-learning  deep-materialism  definite-planning  definition  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  detail-architecture  differential  dimensionality  direction  discipline  discrete  discussion  distribution  divergence  diversity  draft  duality  dumb-ml  dynamic  dynamical  dysgenics  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  education  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  ego-depletion  embeddings  embodied-cognition  embodied-pack  embodied  ems  encyclopedic  enhancement  entrepreneurialism  entropy-like  environment  environmental-effects  equilibrium  estimate  events  evolution  evopsych  examples  existence  exocortex  expansionism  expectancy  expert-experience  expert  explanans  explanation  exposition  externalities  extrema  faq  farmers-and-foragers  features  fermi  fertility  finance  flexibility  focus  formal-values  fourier  frameworks  free-riding  frontier  futurism  galor-like  game-theory  games  generalization  generative  genetic-correlation  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geometry  gibbon  gnxp  government  gowers  gradient-descent  graphical-models  gray-econ  ground-up  group-level  growth-econ  gt-101  gwas  gwern  hacker  hanson  hardness  hardware  harvard  heavy-industry  hi-order-bits  high-dimension  higher-ed  history  hmm  homepage  homo-hetero  homogeneity  housing  human-bean  human-capital  humanity  ideas  idk  ieee  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  information-theory  inhibition  init  inner-product  innovation  input-output  insight  insurance  intel  intelligence  intersection-connectedness  intersection  interview  intricacy  intuition  investing  iq  iron-age  isotropy  iteration-recursion  iterative-methods  journos-pundits  kernels  knowledge  labor  language  latent-variables  lattice  learning-theory  learning  lecture-notes  lectures  len:short  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  levers  libraries  lifts-projections  limits  linear-algebra  linear-programming  linearity  liner-notes  links  list  local-global  long-short-run  longitudinal  low-hanging  lower-bounds  machine-learning  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  malthus  manifolds  map-territory  marginal  market-power  markov  math.ds  math.fa  math  mathtariat  matrix-factorization  maxim-gun  measure  measurement  medicine  mediterranean  meta-analysis  meta:prediction  meta:research  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metric-space  metrics  micro  microfoundations  missing-heritability  ml-map-e  model-class  models  modernity  moments  money  monotonicity  monte-carlo  mostly-modern  motivation  msr  multi  multiplicative  mutation  nature  neuro  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nitty-gritty  nlp  no-go  noise-structure  nonlinearity  norms  null-result  off-convex  offense-defense  oly  online-learning  open-problems  open-things  openai  optics  optimism  optimization  orders  orfe  org:bleg  org:edge  org:edu  org:fin  org:inst  org:mag  org:mat  org:nat  org:rec  org:sci  orourke  oscillation  outcome-risk  overflow  p:***  p:**  p:*  p:whenever  papers  parable  patience  pdf  peace-violence  performance  pessimism  phys-energy  pigeonhole-markov  piracy  plots  podcast  politics  polynomials  pop-structure  popsci  population-genetics  population  positivity  prediction  prepping  preprint  princeton  probabilistic-method  probability  procrastination  productivity  profile  proofs  pseudoe  psychology  psychometrics  putnam-like  q-n-a  qtl  quantum-info  quantum  questions  quixotic  random-matrices  ratty  realness  recommendations  reddit  reduction  reference  reflection  regional-scatter-plots  regression-to-mean  regularity  regularization  regularizer  rent-seeking  replication  research-program  research  retention  rhetoric  rigidity  rigorous-crypto  risk  roadmap  robust  roots  rot  rounding  s:*  s:null  sampling  sanjeev-arora  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  science  scitariat  sdp  sebastien-bubeck  security  selection  self-control  signum  similarity  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  slides  slippery-slope  smoothness  social-psych  social-science  social  sociology  software  space  sparsity  spatial  speculation  speedometer  ssc  stackex  stagnation  stanford  stat-mech  stats  status  stereotypes  stirling  stories  strategy  street-fighting  structure  study  stylized-facts  sublinear  submodular  summary  survey  symmetry  synthesis  tails  talks  tcs  tcstariat  teaching  technology  techtariat  temperance  tensors  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-practice  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thurston  tidbits  time-complexity  time-preference  time-use  time  tip-of-tongue  todo  tools  top-n  trade  travel  trends  trivia  truth  tutorial  twin-study  twitter  uncertainty  unit  universalism-particularism  usa  values  variance-components  video  visual-understanding  visualization  visuo  volo-avolo  war  washington  wealth-of-nations  wealth  westminster  white-paper  whole-partial-many  wiki  winner-take-all  wonkish  world  wormholes  yoga  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  👳  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark: