consumer_spending   28

Highest Median Household Income on Record?
Income data released by the U.S. Census Bureau today show that 2017 median household income was the highest on record at $61,372.

But is it really?

By simply looking at median household income from previous years, one could infer that because it surpasses the median income for 2007 ($59,534 in 2017 dollars) and 1999 ($60,062 in 2017 dollars).
america  consumer_spending  gallup  income_inequality  economy 
september 2018 by JohnDrake
Poorer Americans buckling as U.S. economy booms
The top 40 percent of earners usually drive U.S. consumption growth. But 2016-2017 was the first two-year span in at least two decades that the bottom 60 percent accounted for the majority, and that appeared to continue in the first quarter of 2018.
reuters  economics  america  consumer_spending  wages  planning_dfi  economy 
august 2018 by JohnDrake
Hasta la vista, employment - The Globe and Mail
DOUG SAUNDERS
The Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, May. 02 2015

Next week, right on time, will see the publication of Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, by the Silicon Valley software guru Martin Ford. It doesn’t mention Mr. Rifkin, but it argues that new, even smarter technology is now impinging on the medical and educational work forces.

Our era “will be defined by a fundamental shift in the relationship between workers and machines,” Mr. Ford writes. “That shift will ultimately challenge one of our most basic assumptions about technology: That machines are tools that increase the productivity of workers. Instead, machines themselves are turning into workers, and the line between the capability of labour and capital is blurring as never before.” As a result, he concludes in a déjà vu-inducing passage, “the virtuous feedback loop between productivity, rising wages and increasing consumer spending will collapse.”
Doug_Saunders  unemployment  middle_class  productivity  consumer_spending  books  joblessness  automation  robotics  artificial_intelligence 
may 2015 by jerryking
Books Bought By Big Picture Readers (February 2012)
Click to enlarge:

I always find it interesting to see which books TBP readers are buying.

In addition to throwing off minor referral revenue, the Amazon embed code lets me track every click from these links — how many people look at the page, how many books gt collectively purchased.

Its anonymous — I don’t know who bought what — but there’s lots of data on the various books generated.

These were the most popular TBP books for February:

A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing (Jim Rogers)

Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere (Tadas Viskanta)

Backstage Wall Street: An Insider’s Guide to Knowing Who to Trust, Who to Run From, and How to Maximize Your Investments (Joshua Brown)

The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things with Money (Carl Richards)

The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor (Howard Marks)

Bailout Nation (Barry Ritholtz)

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Carmen M. Reinhart)

Traders, Guns and Money: Knowns and unknowns in the dazzling world of derivatives Revised edition (Satyajit Das)

When to Sell: Inside Strategies for Stock-Market Profits (Justin Mamis)

Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman)
Consumer_Spending  from google
march 2012 by takshimada
NFIB Correlation: Retail Sales & Unemployment Rate
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its monthly Small Business Economic Trends report this morning.

I’ve noted in the past that as an answer to the question, “What is your ‘single biggest problem,’” Poor Sales correlates very highly to the Unemployment Rate (0.88).  Poor Sales ticked down again this month, from 23 to 22, and is down from 27 one year ago.

Glacial progress.
Consumer_Spending  Data_Analysis  Economy  Employment  from google
february 2012 by takshimada
How Much Money Will Consumers Spend This Holiday Season?
Click to enlarge graphic:

Source:
How Much Money Will Consumers Spend This Holiday Season?
Mashable, November 1, 2011
Consumer_Spending  Digital_Media  Retail  Web/Tech  from google
november 2011 by takshimada
Fade the Consumer Credit Headline (For Now)
The Fed released its G.19 report on Consumer Credit last Thursday, and it stirred some optimism (see also here):

The new U.S. consumer credit numbers reflect an economy that is reaccelerating, and that is very bullish for growth — as well as inflation. All in all, U.S. household credit surged by $7.62 billion in February, ramping up faster than at any other time since June 2008.

I respectfully beg to differ.  While the story gives a passing nod to the rise in student loans, the fact of the matter is that student loans are virtually the whole story, and the downward trend/trajectory in credit, save that category, has really not reversed.

Let’s have a look:

What we’ve got above is Total Revolving, Total Non-revolving, and Total Non-revolving minus TOTALGOV (the category that includes student loans).  Without the increase in student loans — which is to say the green line and the blue line — the trend in credit (both revolving and non) continues downward.

But let’s take a look at exactly how much the TOTALGOV (i.e. Student loan) series is goosing non-revolving credit:

It is, quite literally, a reverse cliff-dive.

In short, fade the notion that consumer credit is experiencing some sort of credit renaissance and that happy days are here again.

That said, we are indeed moving in the right direction, as these two indicators of leverage clearly show (below).  So there would appear to be light at the end of the tunnel.  We’ve got a way to go, for sure, but progress is being made.  When the consumer credit cycle does eventually turn it is my belief that, for a variety of reasons — such as demographics and the lessons (hopefully) learned by today’s younger adults –  it will be fairly weak.
Consumer_Spending  Credit  Current_Affairs  Data_Analysis  Economy  Finance  from google
april 2011 by takshimada
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist: We See an 18% Gain for Stocks in 2011
Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), appeared on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track”. He believes stocks will end the year 18% higher as a result of specific economic trends. Here’s the video and a Cheat Sheet to his comments below …

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iqltr2UIsA0

www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAhKz2Mt41U

On the Middle East and how it plays into Hatzius’ economic outlook:

“It’s certainly a reminder that there are still some significant risks in the global economy and of course, especially to the extent that it affects oil prices and commodity prices more generally. Having said that, our outlook for global growth and the U.S. economy is pretty positive. We think close to 5% GDP growth this year and next year in the global economy and sort of 3.5% -- 4% over the next two years in the U.S.  It’s a reasonably upbeat view.”

On global food inflation:

“[Food inflation] is certainly on our radar. It is not yet fully in the inflation data here, that ‘s still going to happen over the next few months.  We will see upward pressure on the headline CPI numbers as the food price inflation shock feeds through.  At the margin, that is going to be a drag on household budgets.  Having said that, there are also a number of more positive factors pointing in the other direction and that improve household budgets, the improvements in the labor markets probably the most important of them. It is a potential negative, but I think it is being outweighed by other forces.”

On unemployment levels:

“I think it’s going to take a long time for the unemployment rate to get back to the pre-2007 levels. I do think that job creation is in the process of picking up.  I think that is not yet as visible in the payroll numbers as is in a lot of other labor indicators like the household survey, like the jobless claims data, like the job vacancy data, like the household perceptions of job availability. None of these things are going to normalize in the short term.  But I think at the margin, they are getting better. Labor market income is going to be a more important force in terms of household income than the food price inflation in the United States.  Elsewhere in the world, it is going to be different. In the emerging world, food takes up a much larger share of overall household budgets and that is why it is a more acute issue.”

On consumer spending:

“I think the first quarter looks a lot softer than a fourth. The number now on record for the fourth quarter is 4.4% … I think it will come down a bit in the wake of the downwards revisions to the retail sales report.  I think the first quarter will be softer. Over the next year or so, I would expect something like 3.5% consumer spending growth, definitely better than what you have seen for the last few years, though not as strong as the recent spurt.”

On whether this is a buying opportunity in the market:

“Our strategists are generally pretty constructive.  I think it’s the flip side of an economic outlook that is reasonably good in terms of GPD growth…It is not a super strong relative to the downturn we saw, but it is clearly better than we have had in the past few years. A low inflation, low rate environment, policymakers staying on the sidelines and letting that return to higher levels of employment happen for while, I think that’s a fairly positive environment and the way our strategists translate it is to S&P 1500 by the end of the year.”

On inflation:

“I’m not that worried [about inflation].  I do think the headline inflation numbers are going to be higher as the food price inflation shock does work its way through the numbers.  But in terms of the underlying inflation trend, my view is there’s a lot of slack in the system early in the recovery. Typically when there is a lot of slack, inflation remains very low and that is our outlook.  I am probably at the margin a little more sanguine.”

On job creation:

“We’re expecting it by the second half of the year, 200,000 to 250,000 on non-farm payrolls.

That means you move to a situation in which you sustainably create more jobs than the trend increase in the working age population, which means the unemployment rate comes down on a sustained basis. But because the starting level was so high, you are still at 8% by late 2012.  It is a level verses rates of change thing.  The rates of change look like it will be significantly better but the levels are unsatisfactory.  That is very much true in the labor market as in other areas.”

Are You Profiting from Stocks? Join the winning team of stock pickers with Wall St. Cheat Sheet’s acclaimed premium newsletter >>
The_Trade  Trading  Video  Business  consumer_spending  Economics  Economy  Finance  Goldman_Sachs  Inflation  Investing  Jobs  Markets  NASDAQ:QQQQ  NYSE:DIA  NYSE:GLD  NYSE:GS  NYSE:IWM  NYSE:MDY  NYSE:SLV  NYSE:SPY  NYSE:TLT  NYSE:UDN  NYSE:UUP  NYSE:XLF  Stocks  Unemployment  from google
february 2011 by takshimada
Holiday Sales Return to Level Before Recession - NYTimes.com
We of course need increased demand to spur growth, but the attitude I get from this piece leaves me a bit skeptical and wary.
Great_recession  consumer_spending 
december 2010 by sordomudo11
Books Bought By Big Picture Readers (November, 2010)
>

I always find it interesting to see what books TBP readers are buying.

This is an update to an October post looking at the same data. Seems like a greater variety of titles made it into noticeable sales rankings this month:

Books
13 Bankers (Simon Johnson, James Kwak)

The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation (A. Gary Shilling)

All the Devils Are Here (Bethany McLean, Joe Nocera)

Art of Contrary Thinking (Humphrey Bancroft Neill)

Bailout Nation (Barry Ritholtz)

The Big Short (Michael Lewis)

Chasing Goldman Sachs (Suzanne McGee)

Crash of the Titans: Greed, Hubris, the Fall of Merrill Lynch, and the Near-Collapse of Bank of America (Greg Farrell)

The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve (G. Edward Griffin)

Griftopia (Matt Taibbi)How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds (Richard D. Wyckoff)

Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream (R. Christopher Whalen)

Life (Keith Richards)

Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World (Liaquat Ahamed)

The Monster (Michael W. Hudson)

More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite (Sebastian Mallaby)

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Edwin Lefèvre)

Stock Market Wizards (Jack D. Schwager)

Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk among Us (John Quiggin)

If I have time, I’ll add the kindle data, but its about10% of the hardcover.
Consumer_Spending  Weblogs  from google
december 2010 by assaf
Managing the Future Workplace? Start Here. - WSJ.com
SEPT. 19, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By ALAN MURRAY. How
should managers behave in this new economic order? Key trends include:
trust in business being at an all time low; continued govt. involvement
in the economy; credit remaining hard to come by; U.S. consumers
sitting on their wallets; Asia will likely continue to rise, and
technological change will likely continue to accelerate. Stay flexible.
Devour data. Be (somewhat) humble. Communicate. Plan for contingencies.
Be proactive. Insist on candor. Stay involved. Keep your organization
flat. Cross-train your talent.Assess your team.Use your judgment.
managing_uncertainty  workplaces  Alan_Murray  technological_change  future  organizational_culture  flexibility  resilience  contingency_planning  cross-training  data  data_driven  proactivity  humility  candour  Asia  credit  consumer_spending  judgment  teams  accelerated_lifecycles  trends  trustworthiness 
september 2010 by jerryking
100 Years of U.S. Consumer Spending: Data for the Nation, New York City and Boston
100 Years of U.S. Consumer Spending: Data for the Nation, New York City, and Boston, BLS Report 991, offers a new approach to the use of Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Normally, the survey presents an indepth look at American households at a specific point in time, the reference period being a calendar year. Here, the authors, Michael L. Dolfman and Denis M. McSweeney, use consumer expenditure data longitudinally and draw on information from decennial census reports to present a 100-year history of significant changes in consumer spending, economic status, and family demographics in the country as a whole, as well as in New York City and Boston.
demographics  consumer_spending  data  history  1901-2003  PDF 
june 2010 by EmersonLibrary

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