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[1902.10286] On Multi-Cause Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounding: Counterexamples, Impossibility, and Alternatives
Unobserved confounding is a central barrier to drawing causal inferences from observational data. Several authors have recently proposed that this barrier can be overcome in the case where one attempts to infer the effects of several variables simultaneously. In this paper, we present two simple, analytical counterexamples that challenge the general claims that are central to these approaches. In addition, we show that nonparametric identification is impossible in this setting. We discuss practical implications, and suggest alternatives to the methods that have been proposed so far in this line of work: using proxy variables and shifting focus to sensitivity analysis.
causality  confounding  via:arthegall 
11 days ago by arsyed
[1902.04114] Using Embeddings to Correct for Unobserved Confounding
"We consider causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. In particular, we study the case where a proxy is available for the confounder but the proxy has non-iid structure. As one example, the link structure of a social network carries information about its members."
causality  confounding  via:arthegall 
4 weeks ago by arsyed
[1902.04114] Using Embeddings to Correct for Unobserved Confounding
"We consider causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. In particular, we study the case where a proxy is available for the confounder but the proxy has non-iid structure. As one example, the link structure of a social network carries information about its members."
victor-veitch  arxiv  research-article  machinelearning  confounding  causal-learning  causality 
4 weeks ago by arthegall
[1803.07276] Fair Deep Learning Prediction for Healthcare Applications with Confounder Filtering
The rapid development of deep learning methods has permitted the fast and accurate medical decision making from complex structured data, like CT images or MRI. However, some problems still exist in such applications that may lead to imperfect predictions. Previous observations have shown that, confounding factors, if handled inappropriately, will lead to biased prediction results towards some major properties of the data distribution. In other words, naively applying deep learning methods in these applications will lead to unfair prediction results for the minority group defined by the characteristics including age, gender, or even the hospital that collects the data, etc. In this paper, extending previous successes in correcting confounders, we propose a more stable method, namely Confounder Filtering, that can effectively reduce the influence of confounding factors, leading to better generalizability of trained discriminative deep neural networks, therefore, fairer prediction results. Our experimental results indicate that the Confounder Filtering method is able to improve the performance for different neural networks including CNN, LSTM, and other arbitrary architecture, different data types including CT-scan, MRI, and EEG brain wave data, as well as different confounding factors including age, gender, and physical factors of medical devices etc
deep-learning  healthcare  confounding 
august 2018 by arsyed
Twitter
Randomization never ensures zero bias. It provides probabilistic bounds on confounding.

Therefore, by…
confounding  from twitter_favs
july 2018 by csabatino
What are radiological deep learning models actually learning?
CNNs appear to exploit information beyond specific disease-related imaging findings on x-rays to calibrate their disease predictions
deep-learning  machine-learning  causality  confounding 
july 2018 by tarakc02
Education and Political Participation: Exploring the Causal Link | SpringerLink
To test for a causal effect of education, we exploit the rise in education levels among males induced by the Vietnam draft. We find little reliable evidence that education induced by the draft significantly increases participation rates.
study  politics  polisci  education  human-capital  correlation  confounding  endogenous-exogenous  natural-experiment  null-result  military  war  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  asia  developing-world  sociology  phalanges  stylized-facts 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Red State Families: Better Than We Knew | Institute for Family Studies
Second, adjusting for education and race/ethnicity transforms the relationship between the Red State Index and marital upbringing from a curvilinear to a linear one. The redder the state, the more likely is a teen to grow up with his or her married birth parents. The relationship is modest but statistically significant. For every ten-point increase in the Red State Index, the proportion of teens living with both parents rises by one percentage point. This suggests that red state family culture is associated with increased odds of being raised in an intact, married family.

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2017/11/nicholas-kristof-strikes-out.html
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/28/no-republicans-arent-hypocrites-on-family-values-215873
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/blue-america-more-virtuous-than-red-nope/
news  org:ngo  douthatish  sociology  data  analysis  usa  within-group  politics  ideology  coalitions  right-wing  correlation  confounding  race  demographics  education  class  life-history  dignity  wonkish  multi  gnon  general-survey  pro-rata  org:mag  intricacy  religion 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Do High School Sports Build or Reveal Character?
We examine the extent to which participation in high school athletics has beneficial effects on future education, labor market, and health outcomes. Due to the absence of plausible instruments in observational data, we use recently developed methods that relate selection on observables with selection on unobservables to estimate bounds on the causal effect of athletics participation. We analyze these effects in the US separately for men and women using three different nationally representative longitudinal data sets that each link high school athletics participation with later-life outcomes. We do not find consistent evidence of individual benefits reported in many previous studies – once we have accounted for selection, high school athletes are no more likely to attend college, earn higher wages, or participate in the labor force. However, we do find that men (but not women) who participated in high school athletics are more likely to exercise regularly as adults. Nevertheless, athletes are no less likely to be obese.
pdf  study  broad-econ  economics  econometrics  microfoundations  human-capital  sports  intervention  null-result  wonkish  endo-exo  selection  confounding  labor  education  health  fitness  fitsci  org:ngo  white-paper  methodology  compensation  cost-benefit  input-output  endogenous-exogenous  branches 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Places and Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Self-Selection and Contextual Effects | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
preferences -> place, not place -> preferences (mostly)
Cosmopolitan immigration attitudes in Europe's large cities: Adaptation or selection: https://www.dropbox.com/s/lb3yrsdlhpxprfs/RahsaanMaxwellAPSACosmopolitanImmigrationCities.pdf?dl=0
The myth of London exceptionalism: https://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-5/ukip-in-london/
London is not as invulnerable to the appeal of UKIP as commonly reported, finds new research from Eric Kaufmann.

Are White British Londoners more accepting of immigration than White British elsewhere? The British Election Study (BES)’s 2015 panel survey asks whether immigration enriches or undermines cultural life. 34.7 per cent of White British outside London say immigration strongly undermines cultural life. But so do 34.4 per cent of White British Londoners. Not much difference there. 44 per cent of White Brits outside London want to leave the EU, but so do 42.3 per cent of White British Londoners. Again, not much in it.

...

Finally, when we control for a fuller range of demographic and attitudinal characteristics, as in figure 4, London and the South East emerge as significantly more likely than the rest of England and Wales to have voted UKIP in 2014, according to the BES.

Cosmopolitan cities and their country cousins – UK in a changing Europe: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/london-voted-leave-or-why-local-differences-in-populist-right-voting-are-overstated/
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may 2017 by nhaliday

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