clever-rats   76

« earlier    

Surveil things, not people – The sideways view
Technology may reach a point where free use of one person’s share of humanity’s resources is enough to easily destroy the world. I think society needs to make significant changes to cope with that scenario.

Mass surveillance is a natural response, and sometimes people think of it as the only response. I find mass surveillance pretty unappealing, but I think we can capture almost all of the value by surveilling things rather than surveilling people. This approach avoids some of the worst problems of mass surveillance; while it still has unattractive features it’s my favorite option so far.

...

The idea
We’ll choose a set of artifacts to surveil and restrict. I’ll call these heavy technology and everything else light technology. Our goal is to restrict as few things as possible, but we want to make sure that someone can’t cause unacceptable destruction with only light technology. By default something is light technology if it can be easily acquired by an individual or small group in 2017, and heavy technology otherwise (though we may need to make some exceptions, e.g. certain biological materials or equipment).

Heavy technology is subject to two rules:

1. You can’t use heavy technology in a way that is unacceptably destructive.
2. You can’t use heavy technology to undermine the machinery that enforces these two rules.

To enforce these rules, all heavy technology is under surveillance, and is situated such that it cannot be unilaterally used by any individual or small group. That is, individuals can own heavy technology, but they cannot have unmonitored physical access to that technology.

...

This proposal does give states a de facto monopoly on heavy technology, and would eventually make armed resistance totally impossible. But it’s already the case that states have a massive advantage in armed conflict, and it seems almost inevitable that progress in AI will make this advantage larger (and enable states to do much more with it). Realistically I’m not convinced this proposal makes things much worse than the default.

This proposal definitely expands regulators’ nominal authority and seems prone to abuses. But amongst candidates for handling a future with cheap and destructive dual-use technology, I feel this is the best of many bad options with respect to the potential for abuse.
ratty  acmtariat  clever-rats  risk  existence  futurism  technology  policy  alt-inst  proposal  government  intel  authoritarianism  orwellian  tricks  leviathan  security  civilization  ai  ai-control  arms  defense  cybernetics  institutions  law  unintended-consequences  civil-liberty  volo-avolo  power  constraint-satisfaction  alignment 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Unaligned optimization processes as a general problem for society
TL;DR: There are lots of systems in society which seem to fit the pattern of “the incentives for this system are a pretty good approximation of what we actually want, so the system produces good results until it gets powerful, at which point it gets terrible results.”

...

Here are some more places where this idea could come into play:

- Marketing—humans try to buy things that will make our lives better, but our process for determining this is imperfect. A more powerful optimization process produces extremely good advertising to sell us things that aren’t actually going to make our lives better.
- Politics—we get extremely effective demagogues who pit us against our essential good values.
- Lobbying—as industries get bigger, the optimization process to choose great lobbyists for industries gets larger, but the process to make regulators robust doesn’t get correspondingly stronger. So regulatory capture gets worse and worse. Rent-seeking gets more and more significant.
- Online content—in a weaker internet, sites can’t be addictive except via being good content. In the modern internet, people can feel addicted to things that they wish they weren’t addicted to. We didn’t use to have the social expertise to make clickbait nearly as well as we do it today.
- News—Hyperpartisan news sources are much more worth it if distribution is cheaper and the market is bigger. News sources get an advantage from being truthful, but as society gets bigger, this advantage gets proportionally smaller.

...

For these reasons, I think it’s quite plausible that humans are fundamentally unable to have a “good” society with a population greater than some threshold, particularly if all these people have access to modern technology. Humans don’t have the rigidity to maintain social institutions in the face of that kind of optimization process. I think it is unlikely but possible (10%?) that this threshold population is smaller than the current population of the US, and that the US will crumble due to the decay of these institutions in the next fifty years if nothing totally crazy happens.
ratty  thinking  metabuch  reflection  metameta  big-yud  clever-rats  ai-control  ai  risk  scale  quality  ability-competence  network-structure  capitalism  randy-ayndy  civil-liberty  marketing  institutions  economics  political-econ  politics  polisci  advertising  rent-seeking  government  coordination  internet  attention  polarization  media  truth  unintended-consequences  alt-inst  efficiency  altruism  society  usa  decentralized  rhetoric  prediction  population  incentives  intervention  criminal-justice  property-rights  redistribution  taxes  externalities  science  monetary-fiscal  public-goodish  zero-positive-sum  markets  cost-benefit  regulation  regularizer  order-disorder  flux-stasis  shift  smoothness  phase-transition  power  definite-planning  optimism  pessimism  homo-hetero  interests  eden-heaven  telos-atelos  threat-modeling  alignment 
february 2018 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

2013  2014  2016-election  2016  ability-competence  abstraction  academia  accelerationism  accretion  acm  acmtariat  additive  adversarial  advertising  advice  aesthetics  aging  ai-control  ai  akrasia  alg-combo  algebra  algorithms  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  amt  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  announcement  anthropic  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  applicability-prereqs  applications  approximation  arbitrage  arms  arrows  atmosphere  atoms  attention  authoritarianism  automata  automation  average-case  aversion  backup  bayesian  beeminder  being-right  best-practices  biases  big-picture  big-yud  bio  biodet  biohacking  bits  blog  boltzmann  books  bostrom  branches  brunn-minkowski  business  c:***  c:**  c:*  caching  california  capital  capitalism  cartoons  causation  censorship  charity  chart  checklists  chemistry  christianity  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  clarity  climate-change  coalitions  cog-psych  combo-optimization  commentary  communication  compensation  complement-substitute  complexity  composition-decomposition  concentration-of-measure  concept  conceptual-vocab  concrete  confluence  confusion  constraint-satisfaction  context  contracts  contrarianism  convergence  convexity-curvature  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  cost-benefit  counterfactual  courage  creative  criminal-justice  critique  crux  curiosity  current-events  curvature  cybernetics  cycles  data-science  data  debate  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-learning  deepgoog  defense  definite-planning  dennett  descriptive  deterrence  differential  dimensionality  discipline  discovery  discrimination  discussion  distribution  duality  dumb-ml  duplication  ecology  economics  eden-heaven  effective-altruism  efficiency  elections  electromag  elegance  embedded-cognition  embodied-cognition  embodied-pack  embodied-street-fighting  embodied  empirical  ems  endo-exo  ends-means  enhancement  ensembles  entropy-like  environment  environmental-effects  epistemic  essay  estimate  ethical-algorithms  ethics  evidence-based  examples  existence  exit-voice  exocortex  expansionism  experiment  expert-experience  expert  explanation  explore-exploit  exposition  externalities  extrema  facebook  fermi  fiction  field-study  film  finance  finiteness  fire  flexibility  flux-stasis  focus  formal-values  forum  fourier  frequentist  frontier  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  games  gedanken  generalization  geometry  giants  gnon  gotchas  government  grad-school  graph-theory  graphical-models  graphs  gray-econ  ground-up  growth-econ  growth  gtd  gwern  habit  hacker  hanson  hard-core  hci  health  heterodox  heuristic  hi-order-bits  high-variance  history  hmm  homo-hetero  homogeneity  honor  human-ml  human-study  humanity  hypochondria  ideas  idk  iidness  impact  impro  incentives  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  information-theory  infrastructure  inhibition  init  innovation  insight  institutions  integral  integrity  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  interpretability  intersection-connectedness  intersection  intervention  intricacy  intuition  iq  iteration-recursion  knowledge  labor  land  language  latent-variables  latex  law  learning  len:long  len:short  lens  lesswrong  letters  levers  leviathan  lifehack  limits  linear-algebra  linearity  liner-notes  links  list  local-global  logic  long-short-run  long-term  low-hanging  machine-learning  macro  magnitude  manifolds  marginal  marketing  markets  markov  martingale  math.ca  math.co  math.gn  math.gr  math.mg  math.nt  math.rt  math  mathtariat  measure  measurement  media  mena4  mental-math  meta:math  meta:prediction  meta:research  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  metabolic  metabuch  metameta  methodology  micro  minimum-viable  miri-cfar  mit  ml-map-e  model-class  models  moments  monetary-fiscal  money-for-time  money  monte-carlo  morality  mostly-modern  motivation  multi  multiplicative  music-theory  near-far  network-structure  neuro  neurons  nibble  nlp  nonlinearity  nootropics  notetaking  nuclear  number  numerics  objective-measure  objektbuch  occam  offense-defense  oly  online-learning  open-closed  open-problems  openai  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:bleg  org:mat  org:med  orwellian  oss  outcome-risk  p:***  p:someday  p:whenever  papers  paying-rent  peace-violence  people  pessimism  phase-transition  phd  philosophy  physics  pigeonhole-markov  polarization  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  population  postmortem  power  pragmatic  pre-2013  prediction-markets  prediction  prepping  preprint  presentation  prioritizing  priors-posteriors  pro-rata  probabilistic-method  probability  problem-solving  procrastination  productivity  programming  project  property-rights  proposal  psychology  public-goodish  publishing  puzzles  quality  quantified-self  quantum  questions  quixotic  rand-approx  rand-complexity  random  randy-ayndy  rat-pack  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  reason  recommendations  redistribution  reduction  reflection  regression-to-mean  regularity  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  relativity  religion  rent-seeking  repo  research-program  research  retention  review  rhetoric  rigidity  risk  roadmap  robust  s-factor  s:***  s:**  s:*  safety  sampling  scale  scholar-pack  scholar  science  scifi-fantasy  security  self-control  series  shift  signal-noise  signaling  simulation  singularity  skeleton  smoothness  social-science  social  society  software  space  spectral  speculation  speed  speedometer  spock  stat-mech  stats  status  stirling  stochastic-processes  stories  strategy  stream  street-fighting  stress  structure  students  study  studying  subculture  subjective-objective  success  summary  supply-demand  survival  sv  synthesis  tactics  tainter  taxes  tcs  technical-writing  technology  telos-atelos  terrorism  tetlock  the-monster  the-trenches  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-practice  thermo  thick-thin  things  thinking  threat-modeling  tidbits  time-preference  time-use  toolkit  tools  top-n  topology  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  transportation  tricki  tricks  trump  trust  truth  twitter  unintended-consequences  unit  universalism-particularism  unsupervised  usa  values  video  virtu  vitality  volo-avolo  water  wiki  wild-ideas  wire-guided  within-without  wkfly  workflow  working-stiff  world-war  worrydream  writing  xenobio  yoga  zero-positive-sum  zooming  🌞  🎓  🎩  🐸  👳  🔬  🖥  🤖  🦉 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: