boom-bust-cycles   6

The psychology behind boom and bust - Los Angeles Times
"The same neural circuitry that responds to cocaine, food and sex -- the mesolimbic dopamine reward system that releases dopamine in the nucleus accumbens -- is activated by monetary gain as well." Lo says, A long financial boom "breeds an atmosphere of risk tolerance and complacency." That's why financiers and other investors made excessively risky bets -- they thought they couldn't lose. And now? Investors' judgment is clouded by all the pain they feel. Lo switched metaphors -- to the five stages of grief theorized by psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross. "Financial loss can be as traumatic as terminal illness," "We're somewhere between stages three and four, between bargaining and depression -- emotional depression, not financial depression. We're not going to recover until we get to acceptance. We have to accept the fundamental reality that we can't live in a leveraged state. I think we have another six to nine months before we see a genuine recovery."
Spring  2009  May  economy  investment-portfolio  investment  investor  boom-bust-cycles  AndrewLo  MIT  recession  recovery  Kubler-Ross  Ripple-Effects  Implication  Indicator  Consequences 
may 2009 by ahasteve
The psychology behind boom and bust - Los Angeles Times
"The same neural circuitry that responds to cocaine, food and sex -- the mesolimbic dopamine reward system that releases dopamine in the nucleus accumbens -- is activated by monetary gain as well." Lo says, A long financial boom "breeds an atmosphere of risk tolerance and complacency." That's why financiers and other investors made excessively risky bets -- they thought they couldn't lose. And now? Investors' judgment is clouded by all the pain they feel. Lo switched metaphors -- to the five stages of grief theorized by psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross. "Financial loss can be as traumatic as terminal illness," "We're somewhere between stages three and four, between bargaining and depression -- emotional depression, not financial depression. We're not going to recover until we get to acceptance. We have to accept the fundamental reality that we can't live in a leveraged state. I think we have another six to nine months before we see a genuine recovery."
Spring  2009  May  economy  investment-portfolio  investment  investor  boom-bust-cycles  AndrewLo  MIT  recession  recovery  Kubler-Ross 
may 2009 by ahasteve
YouTube - Part 2-Harry Dent Discusses The Coming Depression
Mid 2009 rebound before great crash. Wait to sell what you have to to become liquid as prices drop to dramatically for every asset, patiently scoop up assets at lowest prices ever.
Winter  2009  January  HarryDent  economy  trends  depression  2008  2011  2012  bubble  crash  StockMarket  realestate  home-equity  inflation  interestrates  commodities  emerging-markets  credit-crisis  J2020F  unraveling  crisis  boomersaurs  babyboomers  boom-bust-cycles  business-cycle  80-year  video 
january 2009 by ahasteve
YouTube - Part 1-Harry Dent Discusses The Coming Depression
Dent forecasts instead that the extremes yet
ahead, including oil prices as high as $200, will force a
global slowdown by 2010 in already slowing developed
countries due to demographic trends — including
countries with emerging markets, which spend the most
on food and commodities. Another long-term commodity
boom will occur from the early 2020s into the late 2030s
on this cycle.
The coming collision between the peak in Baby Boom
spending in the U.S. and developed world and the
global commodity bubble will create the perfect storm
for the next great crash in stocks and a global
downturn, much like what occurred with the 1930s
depression. This situation will present a once-in-alifetime
opportunity to get safe and liquid and to buy financial assets at the greatest sale in modern
history! After the great crash ahead, Dent projects great opportunities globally, especially in Asia as

well as in the best health care segments in the U.S. as
“Baby Boomers” age.
Winter  2009  January  HarryDent  economy  trends  depression  2008  2011  2012  bubble  crash  StockMarket  realestate  home-equity  inflation  interestrates  commodities  emerging-markets  credit-crisis  J2020F  unraveling  crisis  boomersaurs  babyboomers  boom-bust-cycles  business-cycle  video  80-year 
january 2009 by ahasteve
The Great Depression Ahead
Harry Dent sees the minor recession of 2008 as the beginning of a greater stock crash and depression to unfold between 2009 and 2012, with the worst crash for stocks and housing between late 2009 and mid 2011. Home prices will decline and will likely experience a minor rebound in early to mid 2009. Rising inflation, interest rates and a last commodity bubble will bring a final blow to stocks, the economy, housing, and even the greater emerging market bubble in stocks overseas. From mid to late 2009 to mid to late 2012, the U.S. will see the next Great Depression and the deflation of the “three bears,” bubbles in stocks, housing, and commodities. The de-leveraging of the greatest credit bubble in history will have much greater effects than we have seen thus far on banking and financial systems. The Depression will hit Boomers in their retirement years, as the Bob Hope generation saw it in their early years in the 1930s and into World War II.
Winter  2009  January  HarryDent  economy  depression  2008  trends  2011  2012  bubble  crash  StockMarket  realestate  home-equity  inflation  interestrates  commodities  emerging-markets  credit-crisis  J2020F  unraveling  crisis  boomersaurs  babyboomers  boom-bust-cycles  business-cycle  notes  80-year  filetype:pdf  media:document 
january 2009 by ahasteve
America's economic meltdowns - Los Angeles Times
Speculation has been followed by collapse at least as far back as the South Sea bubble of 1720. The Panic of 1819 followed a period of crazy exuberance during which ordinary, nose-to-the-grindstone people found themselves tempted to risk too much. In the years leading up to 1819, a booming demand for cotton fueled a price spike. Men with money got rich buying and selling land and slaves as cotton prices rose dramatically. Men without money borrowed to invest, betting on the windfall from next year's crop. An estimated four-fifths of Philadelphia's skilled artisans faced the winter of 1819-1820 without work -- in an age with no benefits, no welfare, no Medicaid. Panics always subsided, then they came back again. A cotton boom recurred in the 1830s, collapsing in 1837. The next three big panics -- in 1857, 1873 and 1893 -- fed off railroad development accompanied by currency and stock speculation. The Crash of 1929 yielded a worldwide Great Depression.
Winter  2009  January  economy  past  J2020F  trends  Boom-bust-cycles  business-cycle  1720  1819  1830  1837  1857  1873  1893  notes 
january 2009 by ahasteve

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