blackswan   665

« earlier    

John Carmack on Idea Generation
Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.
johncarmack  blackswan  Inspiration  blogs  ideas  negativefeedback 
october 2018 by ianchanning
Twitter
"Be a fool in the right places."

Love this line. Not because it's but because, gene…
VCadvice  blackswan  selfhelp  from twitter
may 2018 by callumflack
Artificial intelligence could hardwire sexism into our future. Unless we stop it | World Economic Forum
Studies show that AI and machine learning not only reflect contemporary human biases, but amplify them
ai  sexism  publicpolicy  government  blackswan 
december 2017 by automationeye
Twitter
just about died laughing reading this review on 😂
blackswan  from twitter_favs
september 2017 by ejl
Crash: how computers are setting us up for disaster | Tim Harford | Technology | The Guardian
This problem has a name: the paradox of automation. It applies in a wide variety of contexts, from the operators of nuclear power stations to the crew of cruise ships, from the simple fact that we can no longer remember phone numbers because we have them all stored in our mobile phones, to the way we now struggle with mental arithmetic because we are surrounded by electronic calculators. The better the automatic systems, the more out-of-practice human operators will be, and the more extreme the situations they will have to face. The psychologist James Reason, author of Human Error, wrote: “Manual control is a highly skilled activity, and skills need to be practised continuously in order to maintain them. Yet an automatic control system that fails only rarely denies operators the opportunity for practising these basic control skills … when manual takeover is necessary something has usually gone wrong; this means that operators need to be more rather than less skilled in order to cope with these atypical conditions.”

The paradox of automation, then, has three strands to it. First, automatic systems accommodate incompetence by being easy to operate and by automatically correcting mistakes. Because of this, an inexpert operator can function for a long time before his lack of skill becomes apparent – his incompetence is a hidden weakness that can persist almost indefinitely. Second, even if operators are expert, automatic systems erode their skills by removing the need for practice. Third, automatic systems tend to fail either in unusual situations or in ways that produce unusual situations, requiring a particularly skilful response. A more capable and reliable automatic system makes the situation worse.

Earl Wiener, a cult figure in aviation safety, coined what is known as Wiener’s Laws of aviation and human error. One of them was:“Digital devices tune out small errors while creating opportunities for large errors.” We might rephrase it as: “Automation will routinely tidy up ordinary messes, but occasionally create an extraordinary mess.” It is an insight that applies far beyond aviation. (black swan)
technology  automation  blackswan 
may 2017 by zryb
Mathematical Model Reveals the Patterns of How Innovations Arise
*The "adjacent possible" works great until your broken urn spills all its balls
BlackSwan  from twitter_favs
january 2017 by zzkt

« earlier    

related tags

1%  2012  2014  abenomics  academia  academics  accountability  accounting  activist  adaptivecycle  advice  affairs  ai  algo  algorithm  algorithms  alibaba  animal  animalalphabets  antibiotic  antibiotics  antifragile  arbitrage  artificial  asset  attack  automation  autonomous  bail-in  bailout  balance  ballerina  bank  banking  banks  barrons  basel2  beautiful  behavioral  behaviour  bigdata  black-scholes  black  blackandwhite  blackrock  blogs  bnd  bond  bonus  bonuses  book  books  bubble  bundesbank  business  businessofdentistry  cache  capital  capitalism  career  cars  cds  ceo  cerner  chance  change  china  cia  class  climate  code  complexity  computer  confidence  conglomerate  consequences  contrarian  corporate  corporatism  creative  creditcrunch  creepy  crisis  crony  culture  currency-war  currency  cycle  cyprus  damage  darkpools  data  debasement  debate  debt  debtoverhang  decade  default  deflation  deflationary  degree  deleveraging  dentists  destruction  digital  diplomacy  disaster  disrupting  disruption  dividends  door  doubt  drinking  east  eating  ecb  ecological  econ  economic  economics  economy  editing  ehr  ela  elon  energy  entrepreneurship  environmental  equation  equity  era  error  errors  ethical  ethicaldentistry  ethics  euro  europe  event  evolution  extinction  extreme  facebook  fanfiction  fanvid  fat  favorite  fed  femslash  filled  filter  filters  finance  financial  flashcrash  folly  food  for  foreign  foreignaffairs  fpga  fragility  frank  fukushima  fund  games  gchq  gene  generalisation  generation  geneticallyengineered  genetics  germany  getglue  gfc  glass-steagall  global  glut  google  governance  government  greatrecession  greece  group  hawking  health  healthcare  hedge  heuschrecken  hft  highlyoptimizedtolerance  hindsight  history  housing  hughhendry  human  humanitarian  humanity  humor  hunt  ideas  ifttt  impossible  inequality  inflation  innovation  inspiration  intelligence  interest  internet  intuition  investor  ioer  iot  ipo  iq  iraq  is  isis  jack  jamiedimon  japan  jens  johncarmack  jpmorganchase  laiki  law  lbo  lean  libor  linklog  liquidity-trap  liquidity  livinglikeastartup  lobby  lobbying  lobbyist  longtails  lost  luck  ludens  ludicfallacy  m&a  ma  machine  main  mainstreet  makers  management  mariodraghi  markets  mass  maximisation  mbo  mechanism  medium  metaphor  mi6  middle  modeling  models  modern  monetary  moore's  mortgage  movies  music  musk  mutual  narrative  nassim  nassimnicholastaleb  nassimtaleb  national  negative  negativefeedback  new  nine  nirp  nnt  normal  nsa  nuclear  nyt  observation  of  oil  okcupid  oligarchy  outage  outlier  oversight  panarchy  patriarchy  pay  perspective  philosophy  philostochastic  photos  pigs  piigs  pinterest  plutocracy  police  policy  politicians  politics  pollution  population  portfolio  post-antibiotic  post-canon  power  prediction  prison  private  probability  product  professionals  profit  progress  proptrading  psych  psychedelia  psychedelicmusic  psychology  publicpolicy  qe  quantified  quickcheck  random  rank:1  raphaellawithlove  rate  real  rec  recession  reflation  regulation  regulators  repression  resilience  resistance  review  reviews  revolving  rich  rights  risk-management  risk  robotics  roi  russia  samuelson  savings  scale  scandal  scarcity  schirrmacher  schäuble  science  sec  security  self-driving  self-regulation  self  selfhelp  seven  sexism  shared  shareholder  sheet  sick  sigma  silicon  singularity  smarthome  smp  socialscience  sociology  software  sovereign  speculation  speculative  spike  squeezed  stagnation  startup  statistics  stephen  stimulus  stocks  street  super  supply-demand  supply  sustainability  swan  swans  sweden  syria  syrien  system  systemicrisk  tail  taking  taleb  tax  tbtf  tech  technological  technology  testing  the  theory  to-watch  toika  toobigtofail  traders  trading  tragedy  transhumanism  transmission  transparency  trap  trust  trustagent  turkey  twitter  uglyduckling  uk  uncertainty  unconventional  unintended  unknown  unknowns  unkown  usa  valley  value  var  vcadvice  venture  video  vix  wage  wall  wallstreet  war  warming  waste  water  watersupply  weather  weidmann  wennergren  why  wolfgang  world  yield  youtube  zirp  zombie  zweifel 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: