balance_of_power   37

The U.S. Is Ceding the Pacific to China
March 3, 2019 | WSJ | By Mark Helprin.

While Washington’s focus is elsewhere, Beijing plays the long game—that means preparing for war.

The only effective leverage on China, and by extension North Korea—which otherwise will retain nuclear weapons whether overtly or covertly but certainly—is to alter the correlation of military forces in the Western Pacific, and indeed in the world, so that it no longer moves rapidly and inevitably in China’s favor, which is what China cares about, the essence of its policy, its central proposition. Though with some effort the U.S. is perfectly capable of embarking upon this strategy, it has not. It seems we lack the awareness, political will, intelligence, probity, discipline, leadership, and habit of mind to do so.
America_in_Decline?  Asia_Pacific  balance_of_power  China  China_rising  geopolitics  hard_power  long-term  long-range  maritime  Mark_Helprin  North_Korea  nuclear  PACOM  political_geography  rivalries  South_China_Sea  strategic_geography  submarines  trade_wars  U.S.  U.S._Navy  USMC  U.S.-China_relations  Xi_Jinping  zero-sum_games 
march 2019 by jerryking
Antonella Alimento - Beyond the Treaty of Utrecht: Véron de Forbonnais's French Translation of the British Merchant (1753): History of European Ideas: Vol 40, No 8
Pages 1044-1066 | Published online: 06 Nov 2014
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01916599.2014.968331
This study focuses on the cultural and political context from which stemmed the French translation of the British Merchant. The paratextual and macrostructural interventions that characterised Le négotiant anglois clearly demonstrate that the translator, Véron de Forbonnais, used his work to set out his own epistemological method and his way of looking at inter-state relations. With the book, Forbonnais had distanced himself from Gournay by rejecting the idea that in order for France to prosper in a situation of international competition the government needed to adopt a muscular strategy that included the adoption of a navigation act modelled on the one enacted by Britain in 1660. At the same time, Forbonnais warned French decision-makers that signing commercial treaties with the maritime powers might also be prejudicial to national economic interests. Forbonnais supplied qualified French readers not only with an annotated edition of the British Merchant but also with a translation of Davenant's Of the Use of Political Arithmetick. In so doing, he proposed to his audience a type of governance based on a competent use of statistics. In conclusion, I will argue that in Le négotiant anglois Forbonnais anticipated the key political and economical tenets of his project of ‘monarchie commerçante’, which he later set out in the Principes et observations æconomiques (1767) in order to counter the rise of the epistemology and plans for a ‘royaume agricole’ put forward by the physiocratic movement.
Keywords: British Merchant, Gournay, Davenant, navigation act, treaties of commerce, ‘balance du commerce’
article  paywall  18thC  intellectual_history  political_economy  international_political_economy  France  British_foreign_policy  economic_theory  economic_policy  Physiocrats  commerce  mercantilism  competition-interstate  Navigation_Acts  trade-agreements  trade-policy  Gournay  Davenant  translation  reception_history  French_government  enlightened_absolutism  balance_of_power  statistics  government-data 
december 2016 by dunnettreader
What Can the Next President Do About Russia? - WSJ
By ROBERT D. KAPLAN
Updated Oct. 16, 2016

Of the two great autocratic powers in Eurasia, Russia is emerging as a greater short-term threat than China. The Chinese hope to gradually dominate the waters off the Asian mainland without getting into a shooting war with the U.S. Yet while Beijing’s aggression is cool, Moscow’s is hot....Russia’s economic situation is much worse than China’s, and so the incentive of its leaders to dial up nationalism is that much greater. But the larger factor, one that Western elites have trouble understanding, cannot be quantified: A deeply embedded sense of historical insecurity makes Russian aggression crude, brazen, bloodthirsty and risk-prone. ....How does the U.S. build leverage on the ground, from the Baltic Sea to the Syrian desert, that puts America in a position where negotiations with Russia can make a strategic difference?....

For without the proper geopolitical context, the secretary of state is a missionary, not a diplomat. ...In the cyber domain the U.S. has not sufficiently drawn red lines. What kind of Russian hacking will result in either a proportionate, or even disproportionate, punitive response? The Obama administration seems to be proceeding ad hoc, as it has done with Russia policy in general. The next administration, along with projecting military force throughout the Russian near abroad, will have to project force in cyberspace, too.
Russia  Vladimir_Putin  Robert_Kaplan  threats  deterrence  nationalism  Baltics  NATO  U.S.foreign_policy  leverage  geopolitics  log_rolling  diplomacy  realism  balance_of_power  realpolitik  cyber_warfare  autocracies  insecurity  hacking  maritime  punitive  retribution  retaliation  South_China_Sea  ad_hoc  red_lines  China  autocrats 
october 2016 by jerryking
Anthony Page - The Seventy Years War, 1744–1815, and Britain’s Fiscal-Naval State | War and Society, 34:3 (8 2015), pp. 162-186
Anthony.Page@utas.edu.au -- University of Tasmania -- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1179/0729247315Z.00000000053 -- This article argues that we should view Britain as fighting a ‘Seventy Years War’ with France between the battles of Fontenoy in 1745 and Waterloo in 1815. Through years of hot and cold war, Britain struggled to build the military power needed to prevent it from falling under the domination of France. In hindsight, many view the British as inevitable imperialists, confidently building towards their global empire of the 19thC. In reality, 18thC Britons frequently fretted about the threat of invasion, military weakness, possible financial collapse, and potential revolution. Historical developments only look inevitable in hindsight and with the aid of the social sciences. The struggle to defend itself in Europe during the Seventy Years War saw Britain develop a ‘fiscal-naval state’ that built a global empire.
Keywords: Britain, ancien regime, warfare, eighteenth century.
article  paywall  18thC  British_history  British_Empire  British_Navy  British_foreign_policy  Anglo-French  War_of_Austrian_Succession  Seven_Years_War  American_Revolution  French_Revolutionary_Wars  Napoleonic_Wars  balance_of_power  fiscal-military_state  colonialism  imperialism  English_Channel  French_foreign_policy  French_army  French_Navy  French_Empire  blue_water_strategy  British_Empire-military  British_Army  Britain-invasion  Britain-Continent 
january 2016 by dunnettreader
Jean-Pierre Bois - Le concert des Nations au XIXe siècle sous le regard d'un historien moderniste (lecture audio) | Canal Académie (2013)
L’objectif de la guerre est de faire la paix rappelle Jean-Pierre Bois, professeur émérite d’histoire moderne. Loin d’une histoire des différents congrès diplomatiques qui ont ponctué le XIXe siècle, l’historien propose de situer ce qu’on appelle "Le concert des nations", expression passée dans le langage courant au XIXe siècle dans un champ historique plus large. -- L’Académie des sciences morales et politiques, à l’initiative de l’académicien Jean Baechler, a organisé un colloque international sur le Thème de la Guerre et de la société. Une vingtaine de participants se sont réunis autour du thème spécifique, cette année, de « la Guerre et de la politique », le premier volet d’une démarche scientifique interdisciplinaire qui durera trois ans.-- la retransmission de la communication de Jean-Pierre Bois, Professeur à l’Université de Nantes..--Jean-Pierre Bois est professeur émérite d'histoire moderne du Centre de Recherches en Histoire Internationale Atlantique (CRHIA. Il a reçu en 2012 le prix Drouyn de Lhuys pour son ouvrage La Paix, histoire politique et militaire.
audio  lecture  19thC  Concert_of_Europe  balance_of_power  IR  IR_theory  military_history  diplomatic_history  diplomacy  IR-domestic_politics  international_system  geopolitics  Great_Powers 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Hoffman, P.T.: Why Did Europe Conquer the World? (eBook and Hardcover).
Between 1492 and 1914, Europeans conquered 84% of the globe. But why did Europe rise to the top, when for centuries the Chinese, Japanese, Ottomans, and South Asians were far more advanced? Why didn’t these powers establish global dominance? ...distinguished economic historian Hoffman demonstrates that conventional explanations— eg geography, epidemic disease, and the Industrial Revolution—fail to provide answers. Arguing instead for the pivotal role of economic and political history, Hoffman shows that if variables had been at all different, Europe would not have achieved critical military innovations, and another power could have become master of the world. In vivid detail, he sheds light on the two millennia of economic, political, and historical changes that set European states on a distinctive path of development and military rivalry. Compared to their counterparts in China, Japan, South Asia, and the Middle East, European leaders—whether chiefs, lords, kings, emperors, or prime ministers—had radically different incentives, which drove them to make war. These incentives, which Hoffman explores using an economic model of political costs and financial resources, resulted in astonishingly rapid growth in Europe’s military sector from the Middle Ages on, and produced an insurmountable lead in gunpowder technology. The consequences determined which states established colonial empires or ran the slave trade, and even which economies were the first to industrialize. -- Professor of Business Economics and professor of history at CalTech. His books include Growth in a Traditional Society (PUP), Surviving Large Losses, and Priceless Markets. -- ebook and pbk not yet released --text 200 pgs, data, mideks in appendices ~35 pgs -- downloaded 1st chapter excerpt
books  kindle-available  Great_Divergence  economic_history  political_history  political_culture  military_history  technology  gunpowder  colonialism  imperialism  Europe  Europe-exceptionalism  Europe-Medieval  Europe-Early_Modern  incentives  wars-causes  war  Innovation  technology-adoption  historical_sociology  historical_change  balance_of_power  path-dependency  Tilly  Mann_Michael  state-building  downloaded 
june 2015 by dunnettreader
Antoine Lilti, Céline Spector, eds. - Penser l’Europe au XVIIIe siècle: commerce, civilisation, empire | Voltaire Foundation - October 2014
Volume: SVEC 2014:10, Series editor: Jonathan Mallinson -- Price: £60 / €76 / $94 -- ISBN-13: 978-0-7294-1148-6 -- Description: Au XXIe siècle, l’Europe ne fait plus rêver: son modèle est contesté, tant sur le plan économique qu’intellectuel et politique. Face à ces désillusions, il est urgent d’interroger les origines de l’idée d’Europe: quand et comment la notion d’Europe s’est-elle définie? L’ouvrage dirigé par Antoine Lilti et Céline Spector propose un détour par les Lumières. Si l’Europe peut s’enorgueillir d’une longue histoire, c’est bien au XVIIIe siècle qu’elle est devenue un enjeu philosophique, historique et politique majeur. De Montesquieu à Kant, de Voltaire à Burke ou à Robertson, l’idée d’Europe est au cœur des controverses sur le droit international comme sur l’économie politique, sur la légitimité de l’expansion coloniale comme sur les espoirs d’un monde pacifié. Véritable enquête collective conduite par des historiens et des philosophes, Penser l’Europe au XVIIIe siècle aborde trois éléments majeurs autour desquels gravite le concept naissant d’Europe: l’empire, le commerce et la civilisation. Après avoir décrit la manière dont l’ordre européen a été conçu, les auteurs examinent la question de l’expansion commerciale et coloniale de l’Europe, ainsi que les théories de la civilisation, qui permettent d’interroger le statut de l’exceptionnalisme européen. Le siècle des Lumières ne nous présente pas un idéal européen à ressusciter, mais un champ d’interrogations dont nous ne sommes jamais véritablement sortis. -- see Pocket for full ToC and contributors
books  libraries  Europe  18thC  Enlightenment  colonialism  commerce-doux  international_law  international_political_economy  balance_of_power  competition-interstate  perpetual_peace  historiography-18thC  cultural_critique  imperialism-critique  Montesquieu  Kant  Voltaire  Burke  Robertson  Scottish_Enlightenment  civil_society  civility-political  politeness  civilizing_process  Europe-exceptionalism 
march 2015 by dunnettreader
Stella Ghervas and David Armitage -- The Power of Peace: Why 1814 Might Matter More than 1914 | e-IR April 2014
nice little summary for their conference at Harvard -- Stella Ghervas is a visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Center for European Studies and a senior fellow at the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme d’Aquitaine in Bordeaux. Her book, Réinventer la tradition: Alexandre Stourdza et l’Europe de la Sainte-Alliance, was awarded the Guizot Prize of the Académie Française in 2009. -- A century before the guns of August opened fire on Belgrade in 1914, the Congress of Vienna opened proceedings in September 1814. The contrast between the current memories of these two moments is striking. The centenary of the outbreak of World War I attracts worldwide interest: witness the numerous popular commemorations that will take place in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere this year, on top of the estimated 25,000 books written about the conflict since 1918. Meanwhile, the bicentenary of the Congress has hardly caught the eye of a public beyond the academia. What can this comparison tell us about why we write history? And how might we re-assert the power of peace amid the prevailing talk of war? All continental wars in the past 5 centuries of European history ended in disarray. As Winston Churchill aptly noted in 1946, “among the victors there is the babel of jarring voices; among the vanquished the sullen silence of despair.” Yet, order must somehow emerge again from the confusion of war. What has truly shaped the fate of Europe – and often the wider world – in the longue durée is the series of great diplomatic conferences like Utrecht, Vienna, Versailles and Yalta. For better or worse, those were the watershed moments; but the proceedings in each case were largely undramatic. Peace-making raises little commotion. What Churchill called “jaw-jaw” has little of the popular pulling power of “war-war.” -- downloaded pdf to Note
IR  Europe  Europe-19thC  balance_of_power  diplomatic_history  Peace_of_Utrecht  Congress_of_Vienna  WWI  perpetual_peace  downloaded 
march 2015 by dunnettreader
Danielle Rajendram - India’s new Asia-Pacific strategy: Modi acts East | Lowy Institute for International Policy - 18 December 2014
Key Findings - (1) India’s Look East Policy has shaped its engagement with the Asia-Pacific for over two decades, and, in recent years, has been driven by an external balancing strategy against China’s influence in the Indian Ocean, as well as India’s desire for a greater global role. * (2) The BJP’s overwhelming electoral mandate will provide Prime Minister Modi with the opportunity to transform India into a serious strategic player in East and Southeast Asia. Announced shift from "Look East" to "Act East". * (3) The Modi Government will pursue a greater role in the Asia-Pacific in line with India’s growing economic and strategic interests, based on practical partnerships with Japan, Vietnam, Australia, and ASEAN.
IR  India  South_Asia  Asia_Pacific  East_Asia  China  Japan  Australia  ASEAN  maritime_issues  economic_reform  balance_of_power  alliances  Indian_Ocean  Vietnam  global_governance  regional_blocs 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Marc BELISSA - REPENSER L'ORDRE EUROPÉEN (1795-1802). DE LA SOCIÉTÉ DES ROIS AUX DROITS DES NATIONS | JSTOR: Annales historiques de la Révolution française, No. 343 (Janvier/Mars 2006), pp. 163-166
Brief summary of thesis defended 2005, l'Université Paris I Sorbonne - surprise, surprise, Lucien Bély on his committee with the notion of the 18thC as the last stage of the société des princes and the French Revolution forcing the end of the dynastic wars -- though focus is on the period of the Directoire and Napoleon up through Amiens, he places it in the context of the European dynastic system as structured by the Peace of Utrecht -- highlights an interdisciplinary approach -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  jstor  thesis  18thC  1790s  1800s  Europe  Europe-19thC  balance_of_power  French_Revolution  IR  IR_theory  Westphalia  sovereignty  dynasties  nation-state  diplomatic_history  political_culture  counter-revolution  Jacobins  republicanism  Europe-federalism  Peace_of_Utrecht  société_des_princes  national_interest  intellectual_history  political_philosophy  France  French_politics  French_Revolutionary_Wars  Directoire  monarchy  social_order  legal_system  international_law  international_system  natural_law  citizenship  subjects  property  elites  political_economy  economic_culture  political_participation  downloaded  EF-add 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Daniel Woolf, review - Ken MacMillan, Sovereignty and Possession in the English New World: The Legal Foundations of Empire, 1576-1640 (2006) | JSTOR: The International History Review, Vol. 29, No. 3 (Sep., 2007), pp. 598-600
Cambridge University Press -- Looks well done - Woolf gives high marks for linking the interest of various players, including monarchs, with shifting ideologies and challenges of articulating a legal system that made sense with English ambitions, relations with other European colonial enterprises, and England's peculiar legal framework and its interactions with government - e.g. why the most elaborated jurisprudence, the Spanish, didn't fit with Fortescue commonwealth style thought and ticklish question of "conquest" -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  reviews  jstor  find  political_history  legal_history  legal_system  legal_theory  political_philosophy  international_law  16thC  17thC  Elizabeth  James_I  Charles_I  colonialism  British_politics  British_history  trading_companies  balance_of_power  maritime_history  common_law  Roman_law  dominion  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Sir James Mackintosh, The Miscellaneous Works - Online Library of Liberty
Sir James Mackintosh, The Miscellaneous Works. Three Volumes, complete in One. (New York: D. Appleton & Co., 1871). 07/11/2014. <http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/2266> -- This collections contains his philosophical writings on Locke, natural law, Thomas More, and Machiavelli; his historical writings on the Glorious Revolution, his defence of the French Revolution Vindiciae Gallicae; and several of his speeches in the House of Commons. -- produced from scan -- the French Revolution matters are also in a Liberty Fund edition, Donald Winch editor. -- of interest for his history of moral philosophy in 17thC and 18thC, his work on the Laws of Nations, and his history of the Glorious Revolution. Since he was part of the Edinburgh_Review crowd, has some of his essays. -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  17thC  18thC  19thC  Enlightenment  Radical_Enlightenment  Scottish_Enlightenment  Whigs  reform-political  reform-economic  Reform_Act_1832  Parliament  House_of_Commons  Edinburgh_Review  moral_philosophy  political_philosophy  Glorious_Revolution  Glorious_Revolution-Scotland  Dutch  international_law  balance_of_power  French_Revolution  downloaded  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader
Emer de Vattel, The Law of Nations, Or, Principles of the Law of Nature, Applied to the Conduct and Affairs of Nations and Sovereigns, with Three Early Essays on the Origin and Nature of Natural Law and on Luxury ed. Béla Kapossy and Richard Whitmore - O
Emer de Vattel, The Law of Nations, Or, Principles of the Law of Nature, Applied to the Conduct and Affairs of Nations and Sovereigns, with Three Early Essays on the Origin and Nature of Natural Law and on Luxury, edited and with an Introduction by Béla Kapossy and Richard Whitmore (Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 2008). 07/11/2014. <http://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/2246> -- A republication of the 1797 translation of Vattel’s work, along with new English translations of 3 early essays. -- The 1st French edition was 1758, the 2nd 1773..The 1797 translation is of the 1773 edition and posthumous notes Vattel intended for a revised edition. -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  18thC  intellectual_history  Enlightenment  international_law  natural_law  political_philosophy  moral_philosophy  IR_theory  political_economy  international_political_economy  mercantilism  commerce  military_history  diplomacy  diplomatic_history  sovereignty  nation-state  raison-d'-état  balance_of_power  government-forms  luxury  downloaded  EF-add 
july 2014 by dunnettreader

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