alt-inst   85

« earlier    

Surveil things, not people – The sideways view
Technology may reach a point where free use of one person’s share of humanity’s resources is enough to easily destroy the world. I think society needs to make significant changes to cope with that scenario.

Mass surveillance is a natural response, and sometimes people think of it as the only response. I find mass surveillance pretty unappealing, but I think we can capture almost all of the value by surveilling things rather than surveilling people. This approach avoids some of the worst problems of mass surveillance; while it still has unattractive features it’s my favorite option so far.

...

The idea
We’ll choose a set of artifacts to surveil and restrict. I’ll call these heavy technology and everything else light technology. Our goal is to restrict as few things as possible, but we want to make sure that someone can’t cause unacceptable destruction with only light technology. By default something is light technology if it can be easily acquired by an individual or small group in 2017, and heavy technology otherwise (though we may need to make some exceptions, e.g. certain biological materials or equipment).

Heavy technology is subject to two rules:

1. You can’t use heavy technology in a way that is unacceptably destructive.
2. You can’t use heavy technology to undermine the machinery that enforces these two rules.

To enforce these rules, all heavy technology is under surveillance, and is situated such that it cannot be unilaterally used by any individual or small group. That is, individuals can own heavy technology, but they cannot have unmonitored physical access to that technology.

...

This proposal does give states a de facto monopoly on heavy technology, and would eventually make armed resistance totally impossible. But it’s already the case that states have a massive advantage in armed conflict, and it seems almost inevitable that progress in AI will make this advantage larger (and enable states to do much more with it). Realistically I’m not convinced this proposal makes things much worse than the default.

This proposal definitely expands regulators’ nominal authority and seems prone to abuses. But amongst candidates for handling a future with cheap and destructive dual-use technology, I feel this is the best of many bad options with respect to the potential for abuse.
ratty  acmtariat  clever-rats  risk  existence  futurism  technology  policy  alt-inst  proposal  government  intel  authoritarianism  orwellian  tricks  leviathan  security  civilization  ai  ai-control  arms  defense  cybernetics  institutions  law  unintended-consequences  civil-liberty  volo-avolo  power  constraint-satisfaction  alignment 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Imagine there’s no Congress - The Washington Post
- Adrian Vermeule

In the spirit of John Lennon, let’s imagine, all starry-eyed, that there’s no U.S. Congress. In this thought experiment, the presidency and the Supreme Court would be the only federal institutions, along with whatever subordinate agencies the president chose to create. The court would hold judicial power, while the president would make and execute laws. The president would be bound by elections and individual constitutional rights, but there would be no separation of legislative from executive power.

Would such a system be better or worse than our current system? How different would it be, anyway?
news  org:rec  rhetoric  contrarianism  usa  government  elections  democracy  antidemos  alt-inst  proposal  institutions  axioms  law  leviathan  leadership  obama  nascent-state  counter-revolution  journos-pundits  douthatish  responsibility  the-founding  benevolence 
april 2018 by nhaliday
The Gelman View – spottedtoad
I have read Andrew Gelman’s blog for about five years, and gradually, I’ve decided that among his many blog posts and hundreds of academic articles, he is advancing a philosophy not just of statistics but of quantitative social science in general. Not a statistician myself, here is how I would articulate the Gelman View:

A. Purposes

1. The purpose of social statistics is to describe and understand variation in the world. The world is a complicated place, and we shouldn’t expect things to be simple.
2. The purpose of scientific publication is to allow for communication, dialogue, and critique, not to “certify” a specific finding as absolute truth.
3. The incentive structure of science needs to reward attempts to independently investigate, reproduce, and refute existing claims and observed patterns, not just to advance new hypotheses or support a particular research agenda.

B. Approach

1. Because the world is complicated, the most valuable statistical models for the world will generally be complicated. The result of statistical investigations will only rarely be to  give a stamp of truth on a specific effect or causal claim, but will generally show variation in effects and outcomes.
2. Whenever possible, the data, analytic approach, and methods should be made as transparent and replicable as possible, and should be fair game for anyone to examine, critique, or amend.
3. Social scientists should look to build upon a broad shared body of knowledge, not to “own” a particular intervention, theoretic framework, or technique. Such ownership creates incentive problems when the intervention, framework, or technique fail and the scientist is left trying to support a flawed structure.

Components

1. Measurement. How and what we measure is the first question, well before we decide on what the effects are or what is making that measurement change.
2. Sampling. Who we talk to or collect information from always matters, because we should always expect effects to depend on context.
3. Inference. While models should usually be complex, our inferential framework should be simple enough for anyone to follow along. And no p values.

He might disagree with all of this, or how it reflects his understanding of his own work. But I think it is a valuable guide to empirical work.
ratty  unaffiliated  summary  gelman  scitariat  philosophy  lens  stats  hypothesis-testing  science  meta:science  social-science  institutions  truth  is-ought  best-practices  data-science  info-dynamics  alt-inst  academia  empirical  evidence-based  checklists  strategy  epistemic 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Places, not Programs – spottedtoad
1. There has to be a place for people to go.
2. It has to be safe.
3. There preferably needs to be bathrooms and water available there.
Schools fulfill this list, which is one reason they are still among our few remaining sources of shared meaning and in-person community. As Christ Arnade has often remarked, McDonalds fast-food restaurants fulfill this list, and are therefore undervalued sources of community in low-income communities. (The young black guys in my Philadelphia Americorps program would not-entirely-jokingly allude to McDonalds as the central hub of the weekend social/dating scene, where only one’s most immaculate clothing- a brand-new shirt, purchased just for the occasion- would suffice.) Howard Schultz, for all his occasional bouts of madness, understood from the beginning that Starbucks would succeed by becoming a “third space” between work and home, which the coffee chain for all its faults has indubitably become for many people. Ivan Illich argued that the streets themselves in poor countries once, but no longer, acted as the same kind of collective commons.
ratty  unaffiliated  institutions  community  alt-inst  metabuch  rhetoric  contrarianism  policy  wonkish  realness  intervention  education  embodied  order-disorder  checklists  cost-disease 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Credit Scores and Committed Relationships
We document substantial positive assortative matching with respect to credit scores, even when controlling for other socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. As a result, individual-level differences in access to credit are largely preserved at the household level. Moreover, we find that the couples’ average level of and the match quality in credit scores, measured at the time of relationship formation, are highly predictive of subsequent separations.
pdf  study  economics  sociology  class  sex  correlation  assortative-mating  debt  time-preference  temperance  🎩  patience  microfoundations  phalanges  coming-apart  alt-inst  orwellian  institutions  intel 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Low-Hanging Fruit: Nyekulturny | West Hunter
The methodology is what’s really interesting.  Kim Lewis and Slava Epstein sorted individual soil bacteria into chambers of a device they call the iChip, which is then buried in the ground – the point being that something like 98% of soil bacteria cannot be cultured in standard media, while in this approach, key compounds (whatever they are) can diffuse in from the soil, allowing something like 50% of soil bacteria species to grow.  They then tested the bacterial colonies (10,000 of them) to see if any slammed S. aureus – and some did.

...

I could be wrong, but I wonder if part of the explanation is that microbiology – the subject – is in relative decline, suffering because of funding and status competition with molecular biology and genomics (sexier and less useful than microbiology) . That and the fact that big pharma is not enthusiastic about biological products.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  ideas  speculation  bio  science  medicine  meta:medicine  low-hanging  error  stagnation  disease  parasites-microbiome  pharma  innovation  info-dynamics  the-world-is-just-atoms  discovery  the-trenches  alt-inst  dirty-hands  fashun 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Deep Secrets | West Hunter
I noticed some pundits talking about Trump getting his top-secret briefings. They were musing about the emotional impact of learning the Government’s ‘deep secrets’.

I wonder. I remember being read into a special access program and thinking “Is that all there is’?

There is important information that the U.S. government knows that isn’t on Wiki – details of nuclear weapons, for example – but on the whole I suspect that there are more truly interesting facts (some of them scary) that I know and the Feds don’t than the other way around.

Nazi Germany and the bomb: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/deep-secrets/#comment-85262
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  ideas  speculation  government  usa  elite  vampire-squid  realness  westminster  info-dynamics  knowledge  nuclear  technology  arms  history  mostly-modern  world-war  the-trenches  stories  multi  poast  intel  open-closed  alt-inst 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Halsey’s Typhoon | West Hunter
Halsey fucked up, repeatedly. It’s obvious even to fictional characters, like Marko Ramius in The Hunt For Red October. If not for pressure from the top, Halsey would have been relieved. But Nimitz had reasons for sparing him. Not ones I agree with, but reasons. Halsey was an important symbol of the Navy to the general public, and it was thought that letting it all hang out would hurt the Navy in the expected budgetary fights after the war. And to be fair, Halsey wasn’t a traitor or anything: he was just dumb. Or, as a kinder person than I once said, by 1944, the war had become too complicated for Halsey.

Christ, they gave Halsey five stars, more than Spruance.

Problem is, this seems to be standard policy. Once you soar above a certain level, you never get punished for fucking up. Mangle a major company (like HP) and they whip you with hundred dollar bills – your failure is the stepping stone to a Presidential campaign. Invade the wrong country, turn another into an anarchic sand pile, misread the Soviet Union as the coming thing – you have foreign policy ‘experience’. Reminds me of an 11 year old’s definition of experience – what you have after you’ve forgotten her name..
west-hunter  scitariat  history  mostly-modern  world-war  military  war  leadership  management  stories  realness  error  rant  critique  bounded-cognition  info-dynamics  coordination  oceans  japan  asia  counter-revolution  alt-inst  organizing  usa  alien-character  power  progression  expert-experience  elite  ability-competence  russia  communism  track-record  statesmen  old-anglo  big-peeps  reflection 
june 2017 by nhaliday
One-for-One Rule - Canada.ca
How does it change current practices?
Businesses told the Red Tape Reduction Commission that the burden of existing regulation has been growing unchecked.

The One-for-One Rule requires regulatory changes that increase administrative burden costs to be offset with equal reductions in administrative burden. In addition, ministers are required to remove at least one regulation when they introduce a new one that imposes administrative burden costs on business.

Guidelines and tools are available to help departments and agencies implement these new requirements.
org:gov  org:anglo  canada  anglo  institutions  alt-inst  law  government  marginal  cool  regulation  axioms 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Asking the question | West Hunter
Sometimes simply asking the question in the first place is a key step, even when it takes a genius to actually solve the problem. So, even though he couldn’t calculate his way out of a paper bag, Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré , played an important role in birthing probability theory – by asking Pascal and Fermat to solve the the problem of points – how to divide the stakes of an unfinished series of games. Of course asking the right people is also part of the goodness.

Franciszek Pokorny, who headed the Polish General Staff’s Cipher bureau after World War I, was the first to realize that cryptography and cryptanalysis are essentially mathematical in nature – and that you therefore want to hire mathematicians, rather than classical scholars or members of the band of the battleship California. He recruited Marian Rejewski, Henryk Zygalski and Jerzy Różycki: they weren’t considered world-beaters by other Polish mathematicians – not like Arne Beurling – but they broke Enigma.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  history  mostly-modern  science  innovation  discovery  the-trenches  curiosity  info-dynamics  ideas  individualism-collectivism  stories  early-modern  eastern-europe  crypto  probability  low-hanging  alt-inst  organizing  creative 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Battle for the Planet of Low-Hanging Fruit | West Hunter
Peter Chamberlen the elder [1560-1631] was the son of a Huguenot surgeon who had left France in 1576. He invented obstetric forceps , a surgical instrument similar to a pair of tongs, useful in extracting the baby in a  difficult birth.   He, his brother, and  his brother’s descendants preserved and prospered from their private technology for 125 years. They  went to a fair amount of effort to preserve the secret: the pregnant patient was blindfolded, and all others had to leave the room.  The Chamberlens specialized in difficult births  among the rich and famous.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  history  early-modern  mostly-modern  stories  info-dynamics  science  meta:science  technology  low-hanging  fourier  europe  germanic  IEEE  ideas  the-trenches  alt-inst  discovery  innovation  open-closed 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Low-Hanging Poop | West Hunter
Obviously, sheer disgust made it hard for doctors to embrace this treatment.  There’s a lesson here: in the search for low-hanging fruit,  reconsider approaches that are embarrassing, or offensive, or downright disgusting.
west-hunter  scitariat  stories  discussion  medicine  meta:medicine  being-right  info-dynamics  epistemic  emotion  sanctity-degradation  education  low-hanging  error  bounded-cognition  embodied  policy  ideas  the-trenches  alt-inst  innovation  discovery 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Positively wrong | West Hunter
Wanting something to be true doesn’t make it true – but sometimes, desperately wanting something to be true pays off. Sometimes because you’re actually right (by luck), and that passion helps you put in the work required to establish it, sometimes because your deluded quest ends up finding something else of actual value – sometimes far more valuable than what you were looking for.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  rant  history  early-modern  age-of-discovery  usa  europe  the-great-west-whale  mediterranean  space  big-peeps  innovation  discovery  error  social-science  realness  info-dynamics  truth  wire-guided  is-ought  the-trenches  alt-inst  creative 
may 2017 by nhaliday
There can only be one! | West Hunter
Dynasties decay.   The founder generally has a lot on the ball – tough, a natural leader, and canny campaigner – but his son is unlikely to be so exceptional.  Partly this is a manifestation of regression to the mean, and partly because his mother was probably chosen for something other than her talents as a warlord. By the fourth or fifth generation, it can be hard to believe that the useless poet on the throne is truly a member of the Golden Family.

This decay is a fundamental historical fact – an inevitable consequence of  biology and primogeniture.  It’s one of the important weaknesses of dynastic rule. The Ottomans, however, found a way around it for some centuries – the law of fratricide.  Upon the death of the Sultan, all of his sons were theoretically eligible for the succession (not just the oldest).  Since the Sultan had a harem, there were a lot of them. Whoever first seized power then had all his brothers and half-brothers executed by ritual strangulation. Incompetents didn’t win out in this struggle.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/there-can-only-be-one/#comment-16128
Dynastic decline through regression seems meaning you go from a guy like Stalin to an imperfect copy of Stalin that’s more like the average person (less competent but lacking in other traits that make Stalin, Stalin). Might not always totally all be “bad” for most people’s status, depending on the Great Man’s balance of competence to traits in a ruler that you don’t really want, but which helped them to seize power anyway.

Speculation, but might inbreeding be a way to hang on to more of the founder’s right stuff?

Thereby why constitutional monarchy and similar arrangements might tend to emerge in more outbreeding populations, because the successors to the big Mafia that runs the state and all the little Mafias that run everything else down from there tend to retain less ancestral competence and less ancestral desire for domination and status, so alternative arrangements are found.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/there-can-only-be-one/#comment-16144
list of evaluations for presidents+
"Competence, of course, is not the same thing as acting in the best interests of the common people. But it is absolutely essential for the continuation of a royal lineage or dynasty."

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/there-can-only-be-one/#comment-16130
If everyone in a country was absolutely obsessed with the idea that the human pinkie finger was a symbol of a leader’s connection to god and was required for him to be a good ruler, this whole problem would be solved. The oldest brother could simply have his younger siblings’ pinkie fingers cut off, and let them live.

This would mean that ruling families would be much more free to have big families and expand their power even more.
--
The Byzantines did something similar with deposed emperors: the disfigured were ineligible for the role of God’s regent, or whatever the emperors were theologically. So, off with the nose! Justinian II ruined this humane custom by by wearing a silver nose after his restoration, à la the Lee Marvin character in Cat Ballou.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/there-can-only-be-one/#comment-16203
Here is my take on a solid alternative to democracy in the West: adoptive monarchy. We are acquainted with the Five Good Emperors of Rome. Before an Emperor died, he would adopt his most capable, wise and just subordinate as his son, who would become Emperor after his adoptive father died. The Roman Empire was perhaps at its most stable and prosperous point duribg this time period, and Edward Gibbon esteemed it as the high point of human history up through the time he was writing his tomes about Roman history, at least for the common Roman citizen.

If the American electorate continues to decline, ever falling into idiocy, factionalism and dementia, then I think it might be prudent to put adoptive monarchy into play, and have our monarchs rule the country in the spirit of the Constitution while temporarily holding it in suspension. The monarchs would have 40 to 80 years to pursue enlightened demographic policies, which would ensure that the American people would be ready for democratic rule again. There of course would be a Congress and courts. Both of these branches of government would at first be impotent, but would gradually regain their former power and prestige. At some point, the monarchy would be abolished, with an elected president regaining command of the executive branch, having about as much power as, say, Eisenhower did.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  civilization  history  medieval  early-modern  MENA  government  leviathan  power  elite  regression-to-mean  s-factor  vitality  leadership  behavioral-gen  biodet  sapiens  competition  selection  cultural-dynamics  alt-inst  peace-violence  conquest-empire  counter-revolution  ideas  darwinian  agri-mindset  institutions  broad-econ  trivia  cocktail  🌞  deep-materialism  organizing  ability-competence  rot  gibbon  hari-seldon  the-classics  social-choice  polisci  democracy  antidemos  revolution  war  poast  usa  quality  cybernetics  trust  interests  machiavelli  sociality  demographics  hive-mind  migration  proposal  iron-age  mediterranean  things  dimensionality  status  morality  good-evil  dark-arts  phalanges  law  kinship  n-factor  europe  the-great-west-whale  roots  explanans  benevolence  alignment 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Low-Hanging Fruit: Consider the Ant | West Hunter
Which ought to be a reminder that biomimetics is a useful approach to invention:  If you can’t think of anything yourself, steal from the products of evolution.  It’s like an an Edisonian approach, only on steroids.

Along those lines, it is well known, to about 0.1% of the population, that some ants have agriculture. Some protect and herd aphids: others gather leaves as the feedstock for an edible fungus. Those leaf-cutting ants also carry symbiotic fungicide-producing  bacteria that protect against weed fungi [ herbicides invented well before atrazine or 2-4D]  Speaking of, if you really, really want to cause trouble, introduce leaf-cutting ants to Africa.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  proposal  low-hanging  innovation  bio  nature  agriculture  technology  ideas  discovery  the-trenches  alt-inst  science  model-organism  track-record 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Why The Best Supreme Court Predictor In The World Is Some Random Guy In Queens | FiveThirtyEight
https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/

Jacob Berlove, 30, of Queens, is the best human Supreme Court predictor in the world. Actually, forget the qualifier. He’s the best Supreme Court predictor in the world. He won FantasySCOTUS three years running. He correctly predicts cases more than 80 percent of the time. He plays under the name “Melech” — “king” in Hebrew.

Berlove has no formal legal training. Nor does he use statistical analyses to aid his predictions. He got interested in the Supreme Court in elementary school, reading his local paper, the Cincinnati Enquirer. In high school, he stumbled upon a constitutional law textbook.

“I read through huge chunks of it and I had a great time,” he told me. “I learned a lot over that weekend.”

Berlove has a prodigious memory for justices’ past decisions and opinions, and relies heavily on their colloquies in oral arguments. When we spoke, he had strong feelings about certain justices’ oratorical styles and how they affected his predictions.

Some justices are easy to predict. “I really appreciate Justice Scalia’s candor,” he said. “In oral arguments, 90 percent of the time he makes it very clear what he is thinking.”

Some are not. “To some extent, Justice Thomas might be the hardest, because he never speaks in oral arguments, ever.”1 That fact is mitigated, though, by Thomas’s rather predictable ideology. Justices Kennedy and Breyer can be tricky, too. Kennedy doesn’t tip his hand too much in oral arguments. And Breyer, Berlove says, plays coy.

“He expresses this deep-seated, what I would argue is a phony humility at oral arguments. ‘No, I really don’t know. This is a difficult question. I have to think about it. It’s very close.’ And then all of sudden he writes the opinion and he makes it seem like it was never a question in the first place. I find that to be very annoying.”

I told Ruger about Berlove. He said it made a certain amount of sense that the best Supreme Court predictor in the world should be some random guy in Queens.

“It’s possible that too much thinking or knowledge about the law could hurt you. If you make your career writing law review articles, like we do, you come up with your own normative baggage and your own preconceptions,” Ruger said. “We can’t be as dispassionate as this guy.”
news  org:data  prediction-markets  meta:prediction  institutions  law  government  trivia  cool  info-foraging  alt-inst  info-dynamics  stories  tools  multi  tetlock  paying-rent  realness  🎩  axioms 
april 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

2013  2016-election  2016  ability-competence  academia  acmtariat  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  agri-mindset  agriculture  ai-control  ai  alesina  algorithmic-econ  alien-character  alignment  analogy  analysis  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  applications  arbitrage  archaeology  archaics  aristos  arms  article  asia  assortative-mating  authoritarianism  axelrod  axioms  backup  barons  behavioral-gen  being-right  benevolence  best-practices  betting  bias-variance  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  big-yud  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  blog  books  bounded-cognition  brands  britain  broad-econ  business  c:**  c:*  caltech  canada  canon  capital  capitalism  chart  checklists  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  class  clever-rats  climate-change  coalitions  cocktail  cohesion  cold-war  coming-apart  commentary  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  confusion  conquest-empire  consilience  constraint-satisfaction  contradiction  contrarianism  control  convexity-curvature  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  courage  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  crispr  critique  crooked  crypto-anarchy  crypto  cryptocurrency  cultural-dynamics  culture  curiosity  current-events  curvature  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data-science  data  database  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  democracy  demographics  density  descriptive  developing-world  diaspora  dimensionality  dirty-hands  discipline  discovery  discrete  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  douthatish  driving  drugs  duty  dynamical  early-modern  easterly  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econometrics  economics  econotariat  education  effect-size  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  elections  electromag  elite  embodied  emotion  empirical  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  enhancement  ensembles  environment  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  europe  evidence-based  evidence  evolution  existence  exit-voice  experiment  expert-experience  expert  explanans  explanation  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  fda  fertility  feudal  finance  fire  flexibility  flux-stasis  food  fourier  free-riding  frontier  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  game-theory  garett-jones  gedanken  gelman  gender-diff  gender  generalization  genetics  genomics  germanic  giants  gibbon  gilens-page  gnon  gnosis-logos  good-evil  google  government  gravity  gray-econ  great-powers  group-level  growth-econ  gt-101  hanson  hari-seldon  heavy-industry  hi-order-bits  hidden-motives  high-dimension  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  homepage  homo-hetero  housing  human-capital  hypocrisy  hypothesis-testing  ideas  ideology  idk  ieee  illusion  impetus  impro  incentives  increase-decrease  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  inequality  inference  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  innovation  insight  institutions  integrity  intel  intelligence  interests  internet  intersection-connectedness  intervention  interview  iq  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  iteration-recursion  japan  journos-pundits  justice  kinship  knowledge  kumbaya-kult  labor  law  leadership  lee-kuan-yew  left-wing  len:long  len:short  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  links  list  lived-experience  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  longitudinal  low-hanging  machiavelli  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  malthus  management  map-territory  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  markets  martial  math.ds  math  measurement  mechanics  mechanism-design  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  mena  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  micro  microfoundations  microsoft  migration  military  minimalism  miri-cfar  model-organism  models  modernity  moments  money  morality  mostly-modern  msr  multi  multiplicative  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  new-religion  news  nibble  nihil  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  noble-lie  noblesse-oblige  noise-structure  nordic  novelty  nuclear  null-result  obama  objektbuch  occam  oceans  old-anglo  open-closed  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:data  org:econlib  org:edu  org:gov  org:junk  org:lite  org:mag  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orwellian  other-xtian  outcome-risk  papers  parasites-microbiome  parenting  parsimony  patience  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  philosophy  physics  pinker  piracy  planning  plots  poast  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  popsci  population  power  pre-2013  pre-ww2  prediction-markets  prediction  preference-falsification  presentation  priors-posteriors  pro-rata  probability  problem-solving  prof  profile  progression  property-rights  proposal  prudence  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  publishing  puzzles  quality  quantitative-qualitative  questions  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  rant  rat-pack  rationality  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression-to-mean  regularizer  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  replication  responsibility  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  risk  ritual  robust  roots  rot  russia  s-factor  s:*  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  scale  science  scitariat  security  selection  self-interest  sex  sexuality  shift  signal-noise  signaling  sinosphere  skunkworks  sky  slides  smoothness  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  social  sociality  society  sociology  socs-and-mops  space  spatial  spearhead  speculation  speed  speedometer  spock  spreading  ssc  stagnation  statesmen  stats  status  stories  strategy  stream  street-fighting  study  stylized-facts  subculture  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  systematic-ad-hoc  systems  taxes  tech  technocracy  technology  telos-atelos  temperance  tetlock  the-basilisk  the-bones  the-classics  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theory-practice  theos  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  time-preference  time-series  time  todo  tools  top-n  traces  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  transportation  trends  tribalism  tricks  trivia  trump  trust  truth  twitter  unaffiliated  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  video  virginia-dc  visual-understanding  visualization  vitality  volo-avolo  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  wild-ideas  winner-take-all  wire-guided  wonkish  world-war  world  x-not-about-y  yarvin  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎓  🎩  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: