acemoglu   32

The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution
The evidence does not provide any support for several other views, most notably, that evolved institutions are inherently superior to those 'designed'; that institutions must be 'appropriate' and cannot be 'transplanted'; and that the civil code and other French institutions have adverse economic effects.
study  economics  growth-econ  history  early-modern  cliometrics  europe  gallic  institutions  acemoglu  revolution  natural-experiment  endo-exo  war  egalitarianism-hierarchy  government  polisci  political-econ  broad-econ  wealth-of-nations  rent-seeking  elite  class  conquest-empire  open-closed  north-weingast-like  endogenous-exogenous 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Is America smart enough? A Q&A with Garett Jones on IQ and the 'Hive Mind' - AEI | Pethokoukis Blog » AEIdeas
hmmm, shit:
Well, if we’re looking at the very recent trends over the last couple of decades, there is not much evidence that there’s been a bigger return to IQ than there used to be. I think there’s moderate evidence that there’s actually an increase in return to personality-type skills.

evidence: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:d70bdc68a51c

One of my colleagues one said offhand a line that I think others have said, which is that 90% of success is staying off the Internet. And I think there’s something to this idea that the return to personality-type measures is probably a lot higher than it used to be. Agreeableness, conscientiousness, especially in certain settings. I’ve looked at the normal statistical results and they don’t find an increase in return to IQ in recent decades. But there’s a couple of studies out there that do find an increase in returns to what they call non-cognitive skills.

I think personality might be mattering more. If the robots are going to take some jobs, they’ll probably be taking a lot of brainy type jobs. But they’re going to be a little behind the times when it comes to personality. And a lot of in-person services are going to depend on personality traits.

more:
So Google and its many spinoffs replace a lot of the need for crystallized intelligence. But the need for fluid intelligence is going to be with us for quite some time. The ability to look at a new, novel situation and figure out what’s going on here.

Some pro-IQ supporters, especially on the Internet, tend to think that there’s this some kind of cutoff where above a certain level IQ matters a lot. Below it, it doesn’t matter very much. And I just don’t find evidence of that. I think that there’s a reason why the market pays for IQ, for higher IQ across the range of the scores. It’s because it’s always good to have somebody around who can just look at an ambiguous situation and figure out what’s going on.

another neat comment:
I think the obsession with years of education really needs to end. And there should be an obsession with broad based test scores. If people don’t want to use IQ scores, that’s fine. But they should at least be looking at broad based test scores, things like the NAEPs, other test scores that the US government is quite happy to report on the Department of Education’s website. These should be the measures we look at. We should be looking a lot less at years of education.
org:ngo  interview  spearhead  garett-jones  hive-mind  human-capital  iq  economics  growth-econ  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  causation  time-preference  patience  coordination  acemoglu  usa  anglo  anglosphere  sinosphere  the-great-west-whale  trends  personality  discipline  internet  the-monster  attention  hmm  :/  psych-architecture  critique  asia  migration  right-wing  policy  education  automation  wonkish  science-anxiety  stylized-facts  s:*  broad-econ  big-peeps  rindermann-thompson  chart  wealth-of-nations  prudence  microfoundations  regularizer  realness  s-factor  multi 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
We show that commuting zones most affected by robots in the post-1990 era were on similar trends to others before 1990, and that the impact of robots is distinct and only weakly correlated with the prevalence of routine jobs, the impact of imports from China, and overall capital utilization. According to our estimates, each additional robot reduces employment by about seven workers, and one new robot per thousand workers reduces wages by 1.2 to 1.6 percent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/29/places-that-saw-more-job-loss-to-robots-were-less-likely-to-support-hillary-clinton/
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/Political%20Machinery-Automation%20Anxiety%20and%20the%202016%20U_S_%20Presidential%20Election_230712.pdf
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/news/201707_TrumpAutomation%20
study  acemoglu  economics  automation  labor  trends  winner-take-all  🎩  trade  econometrics  pdf  technology  the-world-is-just-atoms  compensation  roots  capital  stylized-facts  china  asia  heavy-industry  trump  2016-election  postmortem  multi  elections  data  visualization  analysis  org:edu  oxbridge 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings
A central organizing framework of the voluminous recent literature studying changes in the returns to skills and the evolution of earnings inequality is what we refer to as the canonical model, which elegantly and powerfully operationalizes the supply and demand for skills by assuming two distinct skill groups that perform two different and imperfectly substitutable tasks or produce two imperfectly substitutable goods. Technology is assumed to take a factor-augmenting form, which, by complementing either high or low skill workers, can generate skill biased demand shifts. In this paper, we argue that despite its notable successes, the canonical model is largely silent on a number of central empirical developments of the last three decades, including: (1) significant declines in real wages of low skill workers, particularly low skill males; (2) non-monotone changes in wages at different parts of the earnings distribution during different decades; (3) broad-based increases in employment in high skill and low skill occupations relative to middle skilled occupations (i.e., job 'polarization'); (4) rapid diffusion of new technologies that directly substitute capital for labor in tasks previously performed by moderately-skilled workers; and (5) expanding offshoring opportunities, enabled by technology, which allow foreign labor to substitute for domestic workers in specific tasks. Motivated by these patterns, we argue that it is valuable to consider a richer framework for analyzing how recent changes in the earnings and employment distribution in the United States and other advanced economies are shaped by the interactions among worker skills, job tasks, evolving technologies, and shifting trading opportunities. We propose a tractable task-based model in which the assignment of skills to tasks is endogenous and technical change may involve the substitution of machines for certain tasks previously performed by labor. We further consider how the evolution of technology in this task-based setting may be endogenized. We show how such a framework can be used to interpret several central recent trends, and we also suggest further directions for empirical exploration.

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/structural-unemployment-yes-it-was-humbug/
study  acemoglu  economics  models  trends  labor  automation  education  human-capital  🎩  winner-take-all  econometrics  planning  compensation  capital  polarization  stylized-facts  heavy-industry  multi  news  org:rec  krugman  regularizer 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation
Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes, and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument.
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  stagnation  trends  demographics  automation  acemoglu  contrarianism  correlation  econometrics  econ-productivity  malaise  hmm  age-generation  speedometer  japan  asia  fertility  modernity  input-output 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Market Integration as a Mechanism of Growth∗
In what sense are institutions a deep determinant of growth? In this paper, we address this question by examining the relationship between city growth and institutional reform in 19th century Germany, when some cities experienced deep institutional reform as a result of French rule. Employing an instrumental-variables approach, we find there is a hierarchy of growth factors in which institutions affect market integration more than market integration affects institutions. It was institutional improvements that were crucial to market integration, rather than just declining transport costs, which increased city growth during this time period. The institutional reforms, however, were transmitted through the mechanism of market integration. This created a much larger impact on city growth compared to the institutional impact independent from the market integration mechanism. The approach we take can be applied to other causes of economic growth.
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  institutions  urban  cliometrics  europe  germanic  gallic  natural-experiment  path-dependence  acemoglu  pseudoE  divergence  political-econ  roots  capitalism  cultural-dynamics  conquest-empire  broad-econ  branches  urban-rural  hari-seldon 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Why Nations Fail in Mexico - Why Nations Fail - Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
Perhaps the most unfortunate aspect of all of this seems to be that the teacher’s union controls the hiring and training of teachers. One result is that Mexico has a terrible education system. Peña Nieto’s response to this obstacle was have La Maestra arrested for charges of embezzlement. Another priority was to completely re-vamp telecommunications regulation with serious attempts to increase competition and challenge Slim’s monopoly. The statements of the Finance Minister Luis Videgaray show clearly that the government understands the connection: less extractive economic institutions, faster economic growth and less inequality in Mexico.
Acemoglu  unions  Mexico  sidebar 
april 2013 by HispanicPundit
Was Central Planning Really Inefficient? - Why Nations Fail - Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
The important leap in Allen’s conclusion, and the reason why his thesis is ultimately unconvincing is that as Gerschenkron noted long ago in Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, partly in the Russian context also, backward economies can grow rapidly and may do so using a variety of arrangements. This is made feasible because they are benefiting from catch-up and technological convergence. The fact that Soviet Russia took advantage of catch-up opportunities and transferred resources from its massively inefficient agriculture to industry implies neither that central planning was efficient in the short run nor that it could be a steppingstone for more growth-enhancing institutional structure in the long run.

Textbooks sometimes simplify things. But in this instance, the textbook treatment of central planning as economically inefficient is right.
sidebar  Acemoglu  history  communist  russia 
august 2012 by HispanicPundit

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