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Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks | Nature Geoscience
Comwyn-Platt et al. 2018: Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength. We present simulations with an inverted intermediate complexity climate model, which follows prescribed global warming pathways to stabilization at 1.5 or 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, and which incorporates a state-of-the-art global land surface model with updated descriptions of wetland and permafrost carbon release. We demonstrate that the climate feedbacks from those two processes are substantial. Specifically, permissible anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 emission budgets are reduced by 9–15% (25–38 GtC) for stabilization at 1.5 °C, and 6–10% (33–52 GtC) for 2.0 °C stabilization. In our simulations these feedback processes respond more quickly at temperatures below 1.5 °C, and the differences between the 1.5 and 2 °C targets are disproportionately small. This key finding holds for transient emission pathways to 2100 and does not account for longer-term implications of these feedback processes. We conclude that natural feedback processes from wetlands and permafrost must be considered in assessments of transient emission pathways to limit global warming.
Climate_Science_study  methane  wetlands  PermafrostThaw  climate_modeling  1.5  feedbackloop  CarbonBudget 
6 weeks ago by huntercutting
Here's how a 100% renewable energy future can create jobs and even save the gas industry
Teske et al: Here's how a 100% renewable energy future can create jobs and even save the gas industry
Climate_Science_study  energyStudy  1.5  negativeemissions  naturalgas 
7 weeks ago by huntercutting
Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals - Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5°C and +2°C | Sven Teske | Springer
This open access book presents detailed pathways to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, globally and across ten geographical regions. Based on state-of-the-art scenario modelling, it provides the vital missing link between renewable energy targets and the measures needed to achieve them. Bringing together the latest research in climate science, renewable energy technology, employment and resource impacts, the book breaks new ground by covering all the elements essential to achieving the ambitious climate mitigation targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. For example, sectoral implementation pathways, with special emphasis on differences between developed and developing countries and regional conditions, provide tools to implement the scenarios globally and domestically. Non-energy greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios define a sustainable pathway for land-use change and the agricultural sector. Furthermore, results of the impact of the scenarios on employment and mineral and resource requirements provide vital insight on economic and resource management implications.

The book clearly demonstrates that the goals of the Paris Agreement are achievable and feasible with current technology and are beneficial in economic and employment terms. It is essential reading for anyone with responsibility for implementing renewable energy or climate targets internationally or domestically, including climate policy negotiators, policy-makers at all levels of government, businesses with renewable energy commitments, researchers and the renewable energy industry.
Climate_Science_study  energyStudy  1.5  negativeemissions 
7 weeks ago by huntercutting
Simultaneous heatwaves caused by anthropogenic climate change | EurekAlert! Science News
Vogel et al 2019: researchers analysed observation-based data from 1958 to 2018. They investigated state-of-the-art model simulations to project the geographic extent that heatwaves could reach by the end of the century if temperatures continue to climb.

Massive increase in the areas affected by intense heat

An evaluation of the data from last year's hot summer reveals that, on an average day from May to July, 22 percent of agricultural land and populated areas in the Northern Hemisphere were simultaneously hit by extremely high temperatures. The heatwave affected at least 17 countries, from Canada and the United States to Russia, Japan and South Korea.

By studying the measurement data, the researchers realised that such large-scale heatwaves first appeared in the northern hemisphere in 2010, then in 2012, and again in 2018. Prior to 2010, however, the researchers did not find any instances of such large areas being affected simultaneously by heat.

Widespread heat extremes ever more likely

Model calculations confirm this trend. As the earth grows warmer, widespread heat extremes become more and more likely. According to model projections, every degree of global warming will cause the area of land in key agricultural regions or densely populated areas in the Northern Hemisphere that is simultaneously affected by extreme heat to grow by 16 percent. Should global temperatures rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, then one-quarter of the northern hemisphere will experience a summer as hot as the summer of 2018 every two out of three years If global warming reaches 2 degrees, the probability of such a period of extreme heat rises to almost 100 percent. In other words, every year extreme heat will affect an area just as large as the 2018 heatwave did.
Climate_Science_study  heatwaves  attribution  1.5 
10 weeks ago by huntercutting
Climate Change Is Cutting Into the Global Fish Catch, and It's on Pace to Get Worse | InsideClimate News
March 2019: The study of past changes to ocean fisheries, published Thursday in the journal Science, looked at the impact of rising ocean temperatures on 124 marine species representing about one-third of the global catch from 1930 to 2010. It found that the "maximum sustainable yield," or the amount of fish that could be caught each year without jeopardizing future harvests, dropped by 4.1 percent over this period as a result of climate change.

Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees would boost the global annual revenue for fishers and seafood workers by $23 billion compared to a "business as usual" path of 3.5 degrees warming.
Climate_Science_study  attribution  climate_projection  fishing  1.5  1.5economics 
march 2019 by huntercutting
Inaction over climate change is shameful | Financial Times
Climate change needs drastic action now, but this would be politically difficult
ft  cimate  change  temp  1.5  CO2  john  key  2018  inaction  future  global  warming 
october 2018 by danfnz
Historical record and climate response | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Millar and Friedlingstein 2018: The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members.
ECS  TCR  Climate_Science_study  1.5 
september 2018 by huntercutting
Forests crucial for limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees | EurekAlert! Science News
Aug 2018: Trying to tackle climate change by replacing forests with crops for bioenergy power stations that capture carbon dioxide (CO2) could instead increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, scientists say. "The vast majority of current IPCC scenarios for how we can limit global warming to less than 2°C include BECCS," said lead author Dr Anna Harper, from the University of Exeter.

"But the land required to grow biomass in these scenarios would be twice the size of India".

This motivated the research team to look at the wider consequences of such a radical change in global land use.

The researchers used a cutting-edge computer model of global vegetation and soil and presented it with scenarios of land-use change consistent with stabilising the climate at less than 1.5oC and 2oC of global warming.

The results warn that using BECCS on such a large scale could lead to a net increase of carbon in the atmosphere, especially where the crops are assumed to replace existing forests.

Co-author Dr Tom Powell, from the University of Exeter, explained: "In some places BECCS will be effective, but we've found that in many places protecting or regenerating forests is much more sensible."
1.5  beccs  Climate_Science_study 
august 2018 by huntercutting
(PDF) Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact...
Abstract
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
climate_projection  2.0  SLR  1.5  Climate_Science_study 
july 2018 by huntercutting

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