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The IMF says the US economy's growth spurt may come to a messy end — Quartz
The IMF says the US economy’s growth spurt may come to a messy end June 14, 2018 at 02:01PM https://ift.tt/2lbydOd

The International Monetary Fund is wringing its hands over the state of the US’s public finances under Donald Trump’s administration. The organization says the near-term outlook for the US economy couldn’t be rosier. Next year, the US is expected to mark its longest economic expansion on record, and the job market is in the midst of an unprecedented stretch of growth.

It won’t last.

Trump’s tax cuts and spending boost will help increase growth in the short term, but build up risks further in the future, the IMF says. The IMF is forecasting a gradual economic slowdown out to 2020, but says such a path would be “historically unusual” and may prove to be too optimistic. “The output gap could close more abruptly, through a policy-induced recession, with negative spillovers for the global economy,” the IMF says.

The report published today comes after an official IMF staff visit to the US, a routine process for member countries. It forecasts real GDP growth of 2.9% this year and 2.7% next year. But then it falls steeply, to 1.9% in 2020, and—eventually—1.4% in 2023.

The combination of tax cuts and higher defense and discretionary spending will cause the federal government deficit to exceed 4.5% of GDP in 2019, according to the IMF, nearly double what it was three years ago. “Such a strongly procyclical fiscal policy is quite rare in the US context and has not been seen since the Johnson administration in the 1960s,” the report says.

A deficit of this size would make America’s “already unsustainable” debt path even worse. The US is the only country the IMF expects to boost its debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years. There are plenty more risks for the US (a surprise increase in inflation), for the rest of the world (money flowing out of emerging markets and back into the US dollar, making it even harder for countries to pay off dollar-denominated debt), and for both (the rise of protectionism).

The IMF has a few ideas about what the US can do to reduce its debt levels, including reforming social security, raising the retirement age, a broad-based carbon tax, and containing healthcare cost inflation. Thus far, warnings about the combination of tax cuts, increased spending, and protectionism don’t appear to be gaining much traction.

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10 days ago by leconeyc
FBI agent Peter Strzok texted he would "stop" Trump winning the 2016 election — Quartz
Could Trump win the election? “We’ll stop it,” an FBI agent texted in 2016 June 14, 2018 at 02:01PM https://ift.tt/2HNttHa

FBI agent Peter Strzok texted his lover, FBI lawyer Lisa Page, that they would “stop” Donald Trump winning the 2016 election, according to multiple stories about an upcoming report into the FBI’s handling of its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.

“[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” Page wrote to Strzok, according to the Washington Post (paywall).

“No. No he’s not. We’ll stop it,” Strzok replied, the Post and Bloomberg report. The stories cite a report by the Justice Department’s inspector general, expected to be released at 2pm today.

In December, Robert Mueller removed Strzok (paywall) from his probe into foreign meddling in the 2016 election. The pair have been frequently cited by Donald Trump as evidence that the FBI sought to undermine him and put Hillary Clinton in power during the 2016 election. The US president tweeted about the lovers as recently as this month.

However, the report didn’t find any evidence that any “improper considerations, including political bias” had a direct affect on the FBI’s handling of Clinton’s emails, inspector general Michael Horowitz writes, according to Bloomberg.

Horowitz also criticizes then-FBI director James Comey’s handling of the case, saying he departed “clearly and dramatically” from FBI norms, Bloomberg reports, and that there was a “troubling lack of any direct, substantive communication” between Comey and then attorney general Loretta Lynch, ahead of Comey’s June 5 press conference, in which he lambasted Clinton.

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10 days ago by leconeyc
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RT : That’s the progression, people here illegally, then legal residents, green card holders, then citizenship could be…
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10 days ago by taurean
Opinion: Foreign Carmakers in the U.S. - The New York Times
There are 12, soon to be 14, auto manufacturers producing cars in the United States. The American employees of international companies (excluding Ford, G.M., Fiat Chrysler) manufacture half of all American-made vehicles and export about a million American cars every year.
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10 days ago by areadevelopment
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And for many people, that's 0.00000453% too much.
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10 days ago by michaelkozak
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think, oh, that's looking a bit full.
think but I'm sure I made this volume last time ok.
(reader, he didn't)
whe…
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10 days ago by scottkeir
How To Exclude A File From Windows Defender On Windows 10
How To Exclude A File From Windows Defender On Windows 10
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10 days ago by edan
So Many Brits in Togas: The 'I, Claudius' Character Guide | I, Claudius | Shows | KCET
as "I, Claudius" is concerned, he's a close ally of Claudius' and Julia's husband. Augustus names Agrippa as his heir.
10 days ago by Jimbo
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Roseblood (Kathy from The Thermals) welcomed Sleater-Kinney's Janet Weiss as a new drummer, and just opened for Spe…
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10 days ago by mathpunk
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do you know why I’d be getting 404 errors for the presence endpoint?
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10 days ago by wolever
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RT : TODAY AT 5 PM - meet at the steps of the NYPL on 42nd Street!
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10 days ago by justincharles
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I have no idea. It is some primal, irrepressible instinct to make doilies and little lace curtains. My g…
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RT : “Aaaaaaaah fuck” - me, aloud, every single day, like 12 times, recalling various small, irrelevant things I said or…
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10 days ago by msoell
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Kompletne jiny obor nez IT. Ambice na zmenu zaziteho paradigmatu. Vstup do striktne regulovaneho oboru. Michal Illi…
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10 days ago by garcon
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I swear I completed entire semesters in undergrad running on an average of 4 hours of sleep per night.

Now, if my…
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For 15 years, she resisted the “cultural mandate to discipline the fat body." Then she was dealt her last straw. On…
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10 days ago by larsmensel
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With Darren Aronofsky, Hermen and Geoff.
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10 days ago by timoni
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15 जुन 🕛

Tribute to the one of Greatest Freedom Fighter of India Moulvi Ahmadullah Shah Fayzabadi on his Death Ann…
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Чемпионат мира по футболу нужен был ради этого треда
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(3/3) I have since determined I could best spend my time criticizing bicycles that promote a car-dependent lifestyl…
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10 days ago by dannyman
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RT : Erecting gigantic barriers against people and then blaming victims for being blocked by them is a Republican trope:…
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10 days ago by jasongregori
(500) http://worldcup.sfg.io/
RT : If you like playing around with APIs and happen to be a football fan, you might also like the World Cup API 😀
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10 days ago by reinhard_codes
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Longtime Pittsburgh Post-Gazette cartoonist Rob Rogers says he was fired after going public with claims the paper rejected cartoons for political reasons…
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10 days ago by mathewi
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It's sad that some people only feel free to fully express themselves when they are not facing re-election
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10 days ago by andriak
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Tiny Brain: Facebook numbers all time high! Media did nothing.

Galaxy Brain: Media scrutiny is not aimed at Facebook numbers. It’s about accountability. Their…
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Going to run for office on the platform of putting people in the stocks for making me scroll for 10 minutes past some boring story to get to a fuckin’ recipe…
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RT : A "Redesigned and Re-Engineered" Project MUSE Platform/Web Site is Now Live
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